Love that this market is closed to new bets so we don't see people newstrading and frantically selling their NO bets and trying to look like they weren't pathetically wrong

This tweet is probably overstating things, but worth considering

https://x.com/quantian1/status/1852852083461935150

@DavidFWatson it’s not at all. Ann is a hack, she literally did the exact same thing in 2020. Her last poll overestimated Biden by 9 points. Throw it in the trash.

@KwameOsei lol, are you sure?

@DavidFWatson yes. Trump is literally leading the aggregate in Wisconsin. Even Morning Consult has him up 💀 he is NOT down in IOWA.

@KwameOsei “yes” as in you still believe her 2020 Iowa poll had Biden +3? Because that’s what you said.

https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/nate-silver-100k-twitter-bet-will-t#180deei2lxl

@DavidFWatson a week out in 2020, she released an even poll. This is a similar outlier, obviously…

The fact that she releases outliers is a big part of why she's so credible.

@KwameOsei wtf are you talking about? Selzer wouldn’t publish twice in the last month. Did you mean a month out? Maybe go look things up before throwing out random things you sorta remember

@DavidFWatson Kamala will very likely win, probly in the neighborhood of 276 to 308 but the chance we get an election map even remotely like this is almost mathematically impossible lol, polls this dramatically underselling a 400+ EC victory would not be a polling error it would be a conspiracy hahaha

@ChrisMcGuire oh yea, for sure this is probably polling error, but we're arguing about Trump's margin in Florida here.

@DavidFWatson Yeah I wish I had some un-encumbered M to throw at this one, my gut says Silver wins this one. People forget that apart from (some states) in 2020 Reps tend to highly outperform in early voting, so only being up 10-11 points in early voting is far from a slam dunk for reps in Florida. My gut tells me Trump wins by 5.5-6.5 in FL.

@DavidFWatson I toyed around with the swingometer a bit. If even the internals Trump leaked are right, R+5 in Iowa, it becomes very difficult for FL R+8 to happen. Not impossible, but a real uphill battle.

@KwameOsei look at you, lying like the big boys, congrats on that

@DavidFWatson wasn’t lying. Was mistaken, Des Moine register tweeted that poll a week out, I assumed they had just released it. Also, she’s still botched it, the cross tabs are totally insane. Iowa won’t less than 12. She’s finished.

@KwameOsei do you have evidence, or are you just remembering stuff again? Because that’s not gone well for you so far

@DavidFWatson compare her poll to the 2020 exit polling 💀 you’re delulu

@KwameOsei which poll dude, did you give in and admit by omission that you made up a Selzer poll “one week before” the 2020 election?

@DavidFWatson ??? Ann’s. Keep up.

@KwameOsei she releases many polls, you made a 2020 one up, I called you out, you’re saying a bunch of unrelated stuff

@DavidFWatson Florida and Iowa are +10, sorry bud.

@KwameOsei sure, and that’s what the betting is for. But you’re also a liar.

@DavidFWatson The top issues among respondents were Democracy and Abortion (Democracy over economy by 44 points), Ann is the one lying. Stop coping, you dope

@KwameOsei the top issue among Davids in this conversation is whether you’re a liar

@DavidFWatson Ann lied and got all you libs hopes up, 2 days till devastation 😭

@DavidFWatson have you seen the Florida early vote? This bet is looking great for you!

@KwameOsei you’re really unable to focus. Do you admit you made up a poll or not?

@DavidFWatson ?? I already said I mistook their tweet about their poll for a new poll… Not sure how that changes the fact that Ann made up the poll, though.

@KwameOsei you never said you mistook it, you also never linked any such tweet, and given I was accusing you of making something up, I wasn't going to trust your memory about a tweet you saw 4 years ago.

@DavidFWatson ? Lying for no reason. See you in 2 days bro.

@KwameOsei and I asked you then, as now, for any evidence of this tweet. I had not noticed you said you were mistaken!
See! I can admit a mistake when it's pointed out, and without making excuses. You should try it

There are multiple markets betting on Ann Selzer's poll accuracy. It seems like a hotly debated topic. With a 2% error in Trump's favor he would still win Iowa according to her numbers. This market allows for a +/-2% error and is probably undervalued at 20%.

@DavidFWatson Looking for it. This isn’t the first time this year ol’ Ann has been very naughty. She had a Trump +18 poll after the first Biden debate and she literally didn’t release it 💀 Some guy found out about it and posted the results.

@KwameOsei

@KwameOsei "The top issues among respondents were Democracy and Abortion"

Damn, I wonder why those things might be important this year.

@Najawin dude, stop. Democracy +44 over economy isn’t even the case in California. The poll is bunk.

@KwameOsei I thought you were researching that tweet, what's the status on that?

@KwameOsei "Democracy +44 over economy isn’t even the case in California"

According to...? The same pollsters that are insisting it's not true elsewhere? lmao

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@KwameOsei It’s +44 over the economy for being the most important factor in supporting Kamala.

@Arky don't expect any admission to having missed a detail like that from @KwameOsei

@DavidFWatson It's not.

It's unlikely Selzer's poll will turn out accurate regarding Iowa, and if it does, it is still nearly certain that Iowa will be an outlier itself (in that situation.)

@Arky oh ok fair. I’m just incredulous since every single statistic coming out of Iowa points to Trump winning by a wider margin than before. EV, Voter registration, every other poll, and national environment.

@DavidFWatson I was wrong, Trump still winning the PV though.

@DavidFWatson

This was the tweet, I saw the date and assumed the poll was released then.

@KwameOsei "EV, Voter registration"

Neither of these would ever contest the results of the Selzer poll, which is about large amounts of new mild Harris supporters, rather than strong ones. Republicans voting for Harris is exactly what would cause this behavior.

"every other poll"

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"national environment"

Question begging, no reason to think the national environment is pro Trump.

@Najawin no reason??? AtlAs, Gallup, Emerson, THE ACTUAL AGGREGATE. Cope! Did you see the Dixville results? You’re so cooked. Kamala in shambles, it’s done.

@KwameOsei every Dixville voter voted in the republican primary this year, yet there was a 3-3 split. I'd say bullish for Harris

@benshindel Every lib was saying Trump would be lucky to get one. 2020 he got none, 2016 he got one I think. 🐻

@KwameOsei "THE ACTUAL AGGREGATE"

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"AtlAs"

lmao

"Kamala in shambles, it’s done"

Dog. Republicans are currently bragging about "Florida up by 4",

and winning "Waukesha by 10-12"

If these are true, it's gonna be a quick night.

Maybe he still pulls it out. Maybe all these leaked internals are nothing. But the ones they think make them look good actually make them look awful.

@Najawin have you seen the early voting in Florida. You’re citing shitty polls. He’s literally up in the PV at RCP who underestimates him every time. The polls are currently estimating him by 2+ points and he’s still winning. Cope.

@KwameOsei You realize even in the race where Trump is cited to have blown past polling expectations 2016, while he overperformed the polls in some states (mainly michigan was the surprise twist), he performed as predicted and worse than predicted in others right? And in 2020 it was more common the case that Biden overperformed relative to polls, the same was true of dems in 2018 and 2022. This idea that polling errors only swing one way is the most obvious kind of naked bias, you just want one guy to win. Which is fine, if you wanna be a psychopath, but this is Manifold Markets, not your friendly politics discord, we bet based on stats. The stats do not make Trump a slam dunk in this election, in fact currently he's decidedly the underdog for the moment.