MANIFOLD
Mistborn/Stormlight Archive TV show/movie begins filming by EOY 2028?
6
Ṁ1kṀ240
2028
39%
chance
13

Context from The Hollywood Reporter:

Brandon Sanderson’s Literary Fantasy Universe ‘Cosmere’ Picked Up by Apple TV (Exclusive)

It's an unprecedented deal for the author, whose 'Mistborn' series and 'The Stormlight Archive' are being eyed for film and television adaptation, respectively.

Resolution: Resolves YES if according to a consensus of credible reporting, filming has begun on a planned TV show OR movie based on EITHER "Mistborn" or "The Stormlight Archive", before EOY 2028. Resolves NO otherwise.

Details:

  • Current reporting indicates that Mistborn is likely intended for film and SA is intended for TV. For the purposes of this market it doesn't matter—for either, film or TV both count.

  • What it means for "filming to begin" requires some subjective judgement—I'll do my best to follow the spirit of the question.

    • Filming 30 seconds of test footage does not count—the filming needs to be part of a complete production.

    • I.e., there would need to be reports that this filming is part of the complete production. Typically, this is called "principal photography", but I won't be a stickler for exactly how the media refers to it.

Market context
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bought Ṁ50 NO

I will just note for future resolution: “production” is usually but not always the same as beginning principle photography (there could be an announcement of production beginning, without actually starting filming). It would be helpful to have advanced clarification of which specifically you mean.

@eapache

“production” is usually but not always the same as beginning principle photography (there could be an announcement of production beginning, without actually starting filming). It would be helpful to have advanced clarification of which specifically you mean.

yes, production could begin without any filming taking place yet, which is why why I specified that filming has to occur. (i could probably use term "principal photography begins" instead, which is basically equivalent, but i didn't want people to get hung up on the technical definition & whether media reports use that exact term, hence my focus on just "are they actually filming this movie").

is there remaining ambiguity there?

@Ziddletwix nope, I think I was just confused by your example of a production announcement in the final bullet point of the resolution criteria

@eapache oh you're totally right, that last bullet is confusing—I meant it as "in addition to filming, there should be reports that it's the actual production", but the way it's worded doesn't sound like that at all. will change that part, to instead say that i'm basically asking about principal photography (but won't be a stickler for language)

reposted

is it finally happening???

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