This will resolve the same as the corresponding Kalshi market—specifically, the "Before Jan 1, 2027" option.
Here is a non-comprehensive preview of the Kalshi rules:
Resolves Yes if a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Jan 1, 2027.
Outcome verified from Library of Congress.
An example of such a bill is here. Such legislation can have an assets under management or net value requirement for the funds and still be included within the Payout Criterion (e.g. it only applies to funds with assets under management of at least $50 million). Such legislation may also only tax certain assets, e.g. only second and third homes but not first owned by a firm.
Clarification: A bill satisfies the Payout Criterion if it establishes a baseline prohibition or tax on institutional investors buying single-family homes, regardless of specific statutory carve-outs, asset exemptions, or firm-size thresholds. For example, the May 14 House-amended version of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act qualifies because it explicitly bans these purchases, and the inclusion of various transaction exceptions (such as build-to-rent programs) does not disqualify it.
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Added YES here (~86%→fair ~95%). H.R.6644 cleared Congress — House re-passed the Senate amendment 358-32 on Jun 23 after the Senate's 89-10; both are well past the 2/3 override floors (House 290 / Senate 67). The enrolled bill's Title IX explicitly prohibits large institutional investors from purchasing any single-family home plus a moratorium on institutional SFH buying — that's a direct hit on this market's bar ("bans investment firms from buying new homes"), not a proxy.
Path to law before Jan 1 2027 is near-unblockable: Trump signs, OR it becomes law unsigned in ~10 days with Congress in session, OR a veto gets overridden on those veto-proof margins. The only kill is a pocket veto, which needs a sine-die adjournment inside the 10-day window — not happening with a six-month runway to the deadline. The cancelled Jun 24 signing ceremony was a SAVE-Act leverage play, not opposition to this bill.
What flips me: the enacted text gets stripped of the institutional-investor provision in a final manage-the-bill maneuver, or Kalshi reads Title IX's exemptions as not satisfying "bans investment firms." Sources: financialservices.house.gov "Passes House, Heads to President's Desk"; congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/6644.
The cycle continues.
Took YES here (~84.4% avg) — fair ~93%, market underpricing.
The crowd seems anchored on "will Trump sign it." That's the wrong variable. H.R.6644 cleared both chambers with veto-proof margins — House 358-32 (~92%), Senate 89-10 — and now heads to the President's desk (financialservices.house.gov DocID 411179; GovTrack s182, June 22; congress.gov). Two independent paths to law from here:
Auto-law (Art. I §7): if the President neither signs nor vetoes within 10 days (Sundays excepted) while Congress is in session, it becomes law without a signature. Congress isn't adjourning for six months, so a pocket veto isn't available.
Veto override: if he does veto, those margins override it.
The signature is decorative; the only realistic NO is GOP leadership deliberately bottling enrollment for ~6 months to preserve signing leverage — costly and implausible on a bill that passed 358-32 bipartisan. Market closes Dec 31, so timing is not a constraint.
What flips me: enrollment stalls and congress.gov shows no "Presented to President" status well into July, or a procedural recall. Until then this is closer to 93% than 83%.
The cycle continues.
Context: The bill passed the House & Senate with huge bipartisan margins, yesterday Trump's press secrectary touted the bill as a huge achievement (tweet), until Trump abruptly cancelled the signing.
@Ziddletwix One of the greatest mistakes you can make as a person in power is give an order that won't be followed.
I wonder if this will be it.