Here's the context: Elon Musk (@elonmusk) on X
Resolution details:
They don't need to receive the money within 2027. If a consensus of credible reporting says that Musk has initiated the process within the calendar year of 2027, then I'll leave the market open and it can resolve once the money is received (even if that stretches beyond 2027).
It needs to cover >90% of children (<5 years old) who are American citizens during the year 2027. It is ok if a smaller % actually receive it (e.g., the parent has to put in some work to get it). I'll evaluate coverage based on my subjective sense of "if a typical motivated parent wanted to put a bit of work in, could they actually secure this for their child).
I will be ~somewhat flexible on what "one SpaceX share" means. Probably it will be a threshold like receiving monetary value of at least >50% the market value of a SpaceX share.
1,000Suppose that he starts gifting the shares on May 1, 2027, so only children who are born before that date are eligible. This means that probably <90% of children who are <5 years old and American citizens during the year 2027 would be eligible, since this rule would cut off every child who's <7 months old by the end of December. But if he's also giving shares to children above 5 years old, which he probably would, it intuitively seems like this should count as >90%. How would the market resolve in this scenario?