Conditional on NON-record high voter turnout, will Joe Biden win the 2024 election?
Basic
17
2.8k
Dec 2
16%
chance

Resolution

  • 159,690,457 votes were cast in the 2020 presidential election, setting a new record.

  • This is a conditional market: if more than 159,690,457 votes are cast in the 2024 presidential election, this market resolves N/A.

  • If 159,690,457 or fewer votes are cast in the 2024 presidential election, it resolves YES if Joe Biden is the winner, and NO otherwise.

Context

Who benefits from high voter turnout? And by how much? This is an unsettled debate.

CNN: "Why Donald Trump should be hoping for high voter turnout"

Take a look at a New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this month. Trump had a 2 point advantage among registered voters. Biden was up 2 points among likely voters... This would be quite the shift from what had historically been seen. Normally, Republicans gain about 2 points when going from registered to likely voters.

The Hill: "Voter frustration could be key to turnout in 2024, experts say"

Republican strategist Charlie Kolean... said he believes a lower-turnout election would likely benefit Trump more than Biden. Kolean argued that many in 2020 were voting more so against Trump than for Biden, and less enthusiasm exists for Biden now.

This is a conditional market: it pairs with a sister market covering the alternate case ("high turnout") to estimate the impact of turnout on the election outcome.

  • See this market for the probability that in 2024 a record number of votes are cast [1].

  • See this market for the probability that Joe Biden wins the 2024 election, without the conditional (otherwise, they resolve the same).

[1]. The goal isn't truly "record" turnout. Rather, the population is growing, but most people expect the proportion who vote to decrease as well, so "record number of votes cast" seems like a reasonable threshold for "higher" versus "lower" turnout.

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