Construction project website: https://octa.net/Projects-and-Programs/All-Projects/Rail-Projects/Track-Stabilization-Project/?frm=14708
Precipitating Incident: The ground moved considerably during a storm. The last day of service on the track was September 15, 2021 (https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/transportation/story/2021-09-16/metrolink-to-suspend-service-to-oceanside-station-for-track-work).
At the time, people predicted that passenger service would resume in "mid-December" or "mid-January" (https://metrolinktrains.com/rider-info/general-info/service-updates/). In reality, the only passenger service at this time runs on the weekend when no construction workers are around.
The freight railroad (BNSF) is also running at night throughout the week.
On January 23, 2023, Metrolink predicted that construction would end in "late March".
Question will resolve when Amtrak or Metrolink run trains throughout the day. It will resolve even if construction workers are still near the tracks and causing Amtrak or Metrolink to use a modified schedule.
The recent presentation on the topic from OCTA to LOSSAN was given on February 20: https://lossan.legistar.com/View.ashx?M=F&ID=11644896&GUID=4AB6B7DC-63E7-4693-95CD-4BF6CB1F8E47.
The odds of guessing a day are nil, I would use months
@MarkIngraham A numeric market might be a better fit for this question, for example counting days after March 1.
@CollectedOverSpread Would that create a false sense of precision?
@ZianChoy I'm not sure what you mean, but I will point out that in a numeric market, traders don't have to predict the exact value of the number; they only have to predict whether the value is higher or lower than the current "market value" and will profit accordingly.
@CollectedOverSpread Sounds interesting. Is there any documentation about creating a market like that for dates? I didn't see anything on the new-market web page about date-guessing markets.
@ZianChoy currently the way to do it is to pose the question in terms of number of days after a certain reference date. For example, if the reference date is March 1 then a value of 29 represents March 30.
(Note that the first example January 1 corresponds with 1 and in the second example January 1 corresponds to 0. If you do decide to make a numeric market for a date you should make it clear which convention you are using.)
@CollectedOverSpread Thank you. I will read up on it and figure out how to edit this market.