How many quality-adjusted life years will "Long Covid" take away from an average adult on the West Coast of the United States of America?
Aug 2
M$4 bet
Provide both a # (or confidence interval + mean) and a citation or explanation for your prediction. The answer with the most convincing evidence will win. If two answers are equally persuasive, I will choose the one with the tighter range. Definitions: - Long Covid: Whatever the Wikipedia page says at the time the question is resolved. If someone meddles with the Wikipedia page at that time, I will use the newest one that has not been screwed up. - Average adult: Younger than ~65 years old. Older than ~18 years old. Exceptional Circumstances: - If a very definitive answer falls out of the sky and no one happens to reference it, I reserve the right to resolve the question based on whoever's closest to that #. - If all the sources are equally muddled or there are reports that we've been thinking about this all wrong, the question may be resolved as N/A. Jun 21, 12:02am: Should've mentioned that I'm interested in outcomes for fully vaccinated people. And by that, I mean "2 shots plus 1 or plus 2, if immunocompromised". In other words, assume that this person has read https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z8usYeKX7dtTWsEnk/more-dakka. Jun 21, 12:02am: For comparison, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25074692/ says the years lived disabled or injured (YLD) is about 18.4 years for car occupants.
ZianChoy
Zian Choy answered
0.09 disability-adjusted life years per https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9009167/. Also guaranteed to be wrong for same reasons as 0.17-0.18. This figure accounts for vaccinated status.
4%
Duncan
Duncan answered
0.01 - 0.02 disability-adjusted life years per
1.9%
ZianChoy
Zian Choy answered
0.17-0.18 disability-adjusted life years per https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9009167/. Guaranteed to be wrong: Excludes diabetes, includes fatal outcomes (can't have Long Covid if you're dead), Australian population.
1.9%
Add your answer
ZianChoy
0.09 disability-adjusted life years per https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9009167/. Also guaranteed to be wrong for same reasons as 0.17-0.18. This figure accounts for vaccinated status.
4%
Duncan
0.01 - 0.02 disability-adjusted life years per
1.9%
ZianChoy
0.17-0.18 disability-adjusted life years per https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9009167/. Guaranteed to be wrong: Excludes diabetes, includes fatal outcomes (can't have Long Covid if you're dead), Australian population.
1.9%
General Comments