
You waste your time when you write an argument against the current opinion of the market creator.
You waste your mana if you bet he will ever "change his mind".
This will resolve YES in a week, unless you manage to convince me of the opposite. I will earnestly read the arguments (unless they are too long) and may resolve NO if they are compelling enough.
I will not bet on this market.
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This market was more a rant than anything, but I have to resolve it somehow.
The big issue with "Change my mind" markets is they are purely subjective. Their very subject is the sole opinion of the market creator. That's something you realize even more when you experiment it from the author side.
Thanks for the participants who lose either time, mana or both for trying to change my mind.
https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/
This subreddit seems to not work that badly so people changing their minds from internet argumnents is a thing, especially once you have users that are good at it because they got practice with similar markets.
While I agree with you for the most part, it's not completely a waste of time.
1) As @Duncan has pointed out, this type of market can be entertaining to watch. Maybe you enjoy the discussion, maybe you enjoy seeing people twisting themselves into impossible shapes for the purpose of remaining unconvinced.
2) When it becomes clear the author will do anything rather than change their mind, you can still profit, by searching for their other markets and simply betting on the positions they are holding.
One must assume that people engaging in these markets find them worth the time and 'expense'. The fact that people find them engaging may be as big a mystery as the popularity of football, Kardashians, and stamp collecting, but it is a fact that the people engaging in these things find value in them.
@Duncan Intriguing analogy. (Is stamp collecting that popular ?)
This shows that things of no value can be extremely popular. Maybe the key is that wasting time has a value by itself.
Maybe "Change my mind" markets are valuable as a way to waste time. However there is still the issue of wasting mana.
@Zardoru Stamp collecting doesn't have to be popular to be valuable; these are freely opt-in activities. The fact that the they are valuable to the people that opt in mean that they are not a waste of time for those people; it makes no difference what percent of the population these people make up.
@Zardoru Wasting mana is an interesting claim; I think you maybe have not processed how this site works. If you created a market and five people invest $1M mana in the market, then the market was free for you, and you made $M50 in unique trader bonuses, and they made as much as $M49 each, if this was the market that got them their daily trade bonus. It doesn't really matter if or how the market resolves, but that would presumably provide even more mana for somebody. It could be that someone threw away mana on a fake betting site (?which is what a fake betting site is for?), but it's not at all necessary.
@Duncan This is nitpicking. You may not have wasted mana on this particular market, someone else might. I sure did on several other markets.
@Zardoru "You will eat a pizza and a hamburger for lunch"; ""You will eat a pizza or a hamburger for lunch"; it is nitpicking in this case, but you can see how this sort of thing matter for most markets. Also, it appears that I enjoy nitpicking, so perhaps I'm not wasting my time at all....
@Duncan I know the difference between "and" and "or". You are the one who claim I meant "or". The title is not to take word by word as a text of law. I will not resolve NO thanks to an argument about the use of the word "just" or "and" in the title.
@Zardoru Well spotted :-) But it is unclear what we have to prove the opposite of. You seem to be setting it up so that if anyone wastes time or mana on any market, you can resolve YES.... Or maybe I can change your mind just by pointing to one case in which someone did not lose money by betting on a mind change.
@Duncan Maybe not only one, but if you can show several cases with an interesting debate and where the author change his mind, it may convince me to vote NO. However other participants may choose to give me opposite exemples so I keep voting YES.
@Zardoru Would a market like this count? https://manifold.markets/JoyVoid/are-neural-networks-conscious
@Duncan Partially. His starting and ending opinion have varied, but they are expressed as a percentage, showing from the start a willingness to evolve.
@Zardoru Is there a certain percentage of productive market examples that would cause this market to resolve NO?