Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
How many I-134A "Declaration of Financial Support" immigration applications will be submitted in 2023 through the process for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans?
6
Ṁ370Ṁ75
resolved Oct 16
Resolved
N/A

The market will be resolved in 2024 using USCIS data from this website: https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-and-studies/immigration-and-citizenship-data

To read more about the process, see here: https://www.uscis.gov/CHNV

For context, this is a brand-new program in which American sponsors can commit to supporting an immigrant from Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, or Haiti and the government will give them legal status and work authorization in the U.S.. 30,000 will be accepted each month.

Having an estimate of how many applications will be submitted is useful because it helps participants estimate their own probability of being admitted.

Even if other countries are added to the process, we will limit the number to the four countries listed in the title.

Market context
World
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Sort by:

Resolving N/A because the government isn't publishing these statistics

Update: there's a lawsuit against the program, which could potentially cut it short.

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Zach Goldstein

Posted my first prediction market https://manifold.markets/ZacharyGoldstein/how-many-i134a-declaration-of-finan?r=WmFjaGFyeUdvbGRzdGVpbg

According to wikipedia, there are 2.4M Cuban Americans, 1.1M Haitian Americans, 549K Venezuelan Americans, and 430K Nicaraguan Americans.

You need a Covid vaccination to participate, and only 3.5% of Haitians have at least one dose of a Covid vaccine as of today according to Google / Our World and Data

People are also trading