Will my relative be scammed out of more than $20,000 USD as part of this romance scam in the next year?
resolved Feb 1

This prediction market is about the ex-partner of one of my relatives, let's call him Adam. He is in contact with a supposed woman, let's call her Olga. She claims to be from Russia, she has never been able to voice or video call him though. Adam and Olga exchange emails daily.

  • Adam started corresponding with Olga about six months ago.

  • About a month later, Adam paid her ~$300 USD for a plane ticket to come to the UK (where Adam lives) but later claimed that there was a problem with her visa and she couldn't come.

  • We have googled the text of Olga's emails and found the same emails online as part of scams. We have shown Adam the emails but Adam still seems to think that Olga is a real woman writing emails of her own accord.

  • And most importantly, right now, Adam is in the process of selling a house for ~$600000 USD.

(All numbers very approximate.)

This market resolves YES if I find out that Adam sends Olga $20000 USD or more by market close. This market resolves NO otherwise.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted YES
predicted YES

@suzumebatchi I have no info from him but according to the market description it should resolve YES unless I do. Thus, I resolved it NO in order to be consistent with that, though maybe N/A would be a more fair resolution given the situation.

predicted YES

@ZZZZZZ Yeah it really would have. NO means NO.

predicted YES

@NADZOR Exactly :)

bought Ṁ15 of YES

I am continuing to bet this up because I view this as a near certainty.

In my experience, romance scams are like a mental illness to the victim that needs to be treated by a mental health professional. If this person doesn't see a psychologist, I believe that all $600,000 will be lost. Since I have see many people who are severely mentally ill but not a single one who I've told to seek treatment ever has, I unfortunately expect the money to be converted to bitcoins and lost.

What's so awful is that it's not like this money is going to just disappear. It will do direct harm to the world, by purchasing weapons for Russia or North Korea, and people will die if that much money gets there. Intervening in these scams if possible is a greater good than giving $600,000 of your own money to charity.

2 traders bought Ṁ120 YES