Will Tesla deliver its first Cybertruck in Q3/23?
Basic
355
118k
resolved Oct 2
Resolved
NO
Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ552
2Ṁ539
3Ṁ496
4Ṁ310
5Ṁ258
Sort by:
predicted YES

Now that this market closed quickly (due to official delivery numbers), the party continues over here:

predicted NO

@Dave_9000ish That's just for a reservation though... (not the actual car will be delivered from reading it)

predicted NO

@parhizj I read it as an auction for an already produced vehicle 🤷

predicted NO

@Dave_9000ish Yeah that was my impression until I read this line, which really sounds like a reservation to me:

“Be one of the first to own a Tesla Cybertruck! This is for a low-VIN Cybetrtruck. The Cybertruck is built with an exterior shell made for ultimate durability and passenger protection,” the notice from the museum read. 

predicted NO

@parhizj perhaps. Still think this is positive info for Q4 delivery (i.e. this side of the year

predicted NO

September dead. There will be no customer delivery (employee or otherwise) this month

"The Tesla Cybertruck has also still not been registered with FuelEconomy.gov, and EPA officials have stated that when the vehicle is granted a Certificate of Conformity, which would allow it to enter the stream of commerce, it would be available on the site. It is still not on there, which means it has not yet been granted a Certificate of Conformity.

We have reported on those in the past, and when they are granted, Tesla begins deliveries shortly thereafter."

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-prepares-for-cybertruck-delivery-event-with-merch-but-its-still-missing-non-negotiables/

predicted NO

If the production and delivery numbers were to indicate something like

Cybertruck production 80 Deliveries 22*

* These are with employees who have indicated they want to buy them but this is more for testing purposes and the sales are not considered complete at 30 September 2023.

Would this question be resolved yes or resolved no or still wait for further information?

If the delivery event date is announced with some blurb effectively saying first deliveries to retail customers will happen during the event, is that enough for a no resolution?

@ChristopherRandles if there were deliveries in their report it would resolve as yes, Yves has stated so

However consider Tesla's own reporting previously. Would require proper paperwork, which would require certificate of conformity which has still not been granted. It's effectively dead for Q3

https://manifold.markets/Yves/will-tesla-deliver-its-first-cybert#YKc9Bc8YzC0TH6mlyNEQ

predicted NO

@ChristopherRandles namely "Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct." and they've previously said "about 4,820 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q4 2017."

less than 3 days to go....

predicted NO

@parhizj unless I'm misunderstanding, the earnings call will report earnings for Q3, the fact that it is 20 days after Q3 ends doesn't mean it will include data from that period. This market might not have the data it needs to resolve until earnings call, but the data will pertain to a period ending in two and a bit days.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington Q3. For the resolution we might have to wait until Q3 earnings to have all info.

No. 🗿

https://teslanorth.com/2023/09/25/giga-texas-model-y-cybertruck-spotted/

If crash testing is still going on how could deliveries be approved today... this article is confusing. If they are still doing crash testing, it seems unlikely to me now to have deliveries in 23 days...

predicted NO

@parhizj 23 days? There are only 5 left in q3.

predicted NO

@ChristopherRandles I guess I am confused whether we are going by earnings call date or not.

predicted NO

@parhizj Surely q3 ends 30 Sept. They do delivery and production numbers on about 2nd October. There is possibility that that does not say and we might wait for accounts at earnings call for resolution. However if there were deliveries by 30 Sept but not announced in delivery numbers, we would know about it. The delivery numbers and the earning call give information about up to 30 September.

Also no way delivery event is going to be held without giving people who want to attend at least a weeks notice.

Anyway only 2.5 days for deliveries to happen, but perhaps a couple of days or more longer for longer for resolution. At least that is the way I see it.

predicted NO

@ChristopherRandles I see … I missed that key detail for this question and was considering until the middle of October…

predicted YES

If there is no event, the market will resolve with the announcement of the delivery numbers expected a few days after eoq, I am considering to wait until the earnings call ~ 20th of October, just to be sure.

predicted NO

@Yves so if they include deliveries to staff in their delivery numbers without a delivery event taking place (which would be the first delivery to a "customer") you would resolve this as "yes"?

predicted YES

@Dave_9000ish Yes, I think any delivery that constitutes a sale would be fair. Obv. not Elon driving around in one.

predicted NO

@Yves hmmm. Seems like a conflict tbh

As with competitions where "You may not enter a Competition if you are an employee or immediate relatives of any employees of people working in the Corporate" a "delivery" of a RC or the first batch of production vehicles for friends and family testing should not count as the first official delivery

predicted NO

@Dave_9000ish when launching a new banking product the accounts opened for staff testing certainly don't constitute the first sales

predicted YES

@Dave_9000ish What I mean is: if it shows up in the total of cars delivered along Model S,X,3,Y & Semi, it counts. If done through an event it counts. I don’t mean “deliveries” for testing, I mean sales that lead to revenue.

predicted YES

@Yves An event is not necessary for a delivery to constitute a delivery that counts. A delivery event with a delivery would count as yes, but so would a cybertruck showing up in revenue. Wouldn’t people invited to an event be people close to the company?

predicted YES

@Yves The market is not about an event, but about a delivery

predicted NO

@Yves think you're grasping at straws here. From Tesla's numbers is the following disclaimer "Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct." and they've previously said "about 4,820 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q4 2017."

I doubt Cybertruck deliveries will make it into Q3 numbers prior to a delivery event...

@Yves also, have a look at this comment from 2017 Q2 investor reports

"The first certified production Model 3 that meets all regulatory requirements will be completed this week, with a handover of ~30customer cars at our Fremont factory on July 28."

I'm guessing a replay in the case of the cybertruck

More related questions