@Yuna Could you resolve every state which hasn't resolved yet expect for Trump's overall win, please?

If I amn't mistaken, Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Primaries_and_caucus_calendar) has confirmed every single one.

@Yuna if a primary gets cancelled, how does this resolve?

@Unown My prior would be NA. How do you think it should resolve in that case?

@Yuna Yeah, N/A seems like a reasonable option. Presumably, if a primary was cancelled, the state in question would just award their delegates to Trump. However, if no voting occurs it can't really be considered to be a primary (or caucus, etc.), so YES feels wrong here.

On the other hand, a NO resolution (on the grounds that Trump can't win a primary that isn't held) seems unfair to the bettors who have already bet these to above 95%. This leads me to agree that a N/A resolution would be the most appropriate in such a scenario.

Two NC primaries?

@MaybeNotDepends It looks like the second one, in green, was meant to be Oklahoma (43 delegates).

@MaybeNotDepends @Unown Yes, that should be Oklahoma. I'll change the answer. Sorry about that!
@MaybeNotDepends and @Mattfr I've sent you both the invested amount.

@Joshua and other @mods: feel free to resolve. I might not be online every day.

The banner image is great. The AI saw "🐘" and forgot everything else.

@jks that's a real photo lmao

@Joshua I'll see myself out 🫡

@jks 😅

Will individual options be resolved and paid at different times ? For instance will Trump winning NH primary be resolved this week ? Thanks.

@TAL NH will resolve as soon as other similar markets resolve. So yeah, most likely this week.

https://manifold.markets/Yuna/presidential-election-2024states-an?r=WXVuYQ

@Yuna What kind of site are you sourcing odds? 538?

@Bohaska Nothing yet. Just base rate guesses so far.

@Joshua you're the @firstuserhere 😉