Will Polymarket have $1 billion or more bet on “Presidential Election Winner 2024” before it resolves?
🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election️ Politics🇺🇸 US PoliticsTrumpPolymarket
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Nov 6
98.5%
chance

If “Amount Bet” on their website shows more than $1 billion for “Presidential Election Winner 2024” before it resolves, then this will resolve YES.

The current amount bet (as of August 3) is around $492 million.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024

The question on Polymarket currently is set to end on Nov 4.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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bought Ṁ50 YES

If you want to bet when the market will cross over $1B, I have a Plus market here:
https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/when-will-polymarkets-main-us-presi

Thought that this is a good question for the numeric market type so made one here:

reposted

Wall Street Journal reporter Alexander Osipovich noted the reported Polymarket volume on the 2024 presidential election was over $500 million as of August 8. (Though @WojtekKowaluk pointed out that they report using shares traded * $1 which inflates the volume substantially).

reposted

Up to $582 million as of August 13 8AM EDT

"Amount Bet" on Polymarket is Total Notional Value Volume, which basically means number of shares traded * $1.

Oh that’s annoying. Using notional on binary contracts volume is some voodoo economics.

Regardless, I won’t change the resolution criteria for this market.

Good way to monitor overall Polymarket volume here: https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket

reposted

Up to $498 million today

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