Will Ukraine control any territory in Kherson oblast on the left bank of Dnipro by end of Jan 2023?
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if Ukraine controls any territory

  • in Kherson oblast

  • on the left bank of Dnipro river

  • with pre-2022 population of at least 10,000 people

  • for at least 3 days

  • starting before the end of Jan 2023

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Yev avatar
Yevpredicted NO at 3%

It looks like that hasn't happened. There were some raids, but they weren't big enough and didn't last long enough. I'm going to resolve this NO in a few days if I don't hear any objections.

NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHardpredicted NO at 3%

@Yev Should be safe to resolve, if there were any significant changes in the control of territory (>10 000 population), it definitely would have become known by now.

brp avatar
brpbought Ṁ1,000 of NO

Ukrainian forces conducted a raid against the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River on January 31. Geolocated imagery from January 31 shows two boats on the Dnipro River near the delta islands southwest of Kherson City.[63] Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces briefly landed near and established positions in a residential area on the riverbank before Russian artillery fire forced Ukrainian forces to leave the east bank.[64] One Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces were reconnoitering Russian positions and may be attempting to fix Russian forces in Kherson Oblast but do not intend to establish a bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnipro River.[65] Intermittent Ukrainian raids against east bank Kherson Oblast continue to demonstrate that Russian forces likely lack full control over the eastern shoreline of the Dnipro River, as ISW has previously reported.[66]

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-31-2023

Thagliou avatar
Thaglioubought Ṁ50 of YES

Seems unlikely however I think I’m getting pretty good odds at 20%.