Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 75% for at least 12 hours?
29
220
resolved Feb 22
Resolved
NO
Feb 16, 7:31pm: It does not have to be contiguous 12 hours. Feb 19, 4:57pm: We've reached 12 hours under 25%! Feb 19, 4:58pm: @Robert McIntyre Iarted at 0.7 would say the 75% countdown starts only after the 25% countdown ends. But in this case it doesn't matter because the market started at 74.99999999999999% thanks to floatingpointiness. Feb 19, 6:00pm: I would* Feb 20, 2:03pm: If the conditions are not satisfied by the time the market closes, the market resolves NO. It doesn't matter if the market is above or below 75% at that time. Feb 22, 12:35am: I accidentally resolved this market when I meant to resolve one of my other markets :( Please vote on https://manifold.markets/Yev/i-fucked-up-and-resolved-the-wrong
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bought Ṁ73 of NO
AAAAAAaaaaa. SORRY. I WAS IN THE WRONG TAB D:
sold Ṁ1 of YES
@ValentinManes There is a time bound. The market closes in 76 hours.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@RobertMcIntyre Yes, it is in phases and the first phase is over. I replied to you in the description, but you probably didn't see it.
bought Ṁ10 of YES
If there is no time bound, and since we are already in phase 2, I don't see how it could not happen. Unless we have people doing "suicide bets" we will only have "buy yes" from now.
bought Ṁ499 of YES
We have had an extra nearly two hours at 24% since the last update when there were eight minutes to go on phase 1. I'm confident we're in phase 2 now.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@Gurkenglas I mean I'm actually confused about whether this market has "phases" and if so whether we're in the second phase or still in the first. That seems pretty important!
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Nice try, Mr. Robert "I have 910 M$ on NO and I would really like the prices to be like they were 17 minutes before I looked" McIntyre >:)
bought Ṁ1 of YES
uh, bought and sold 240 NO, i mean.
bought Ṁ200 of YES
If my calculations are correct, the first condition has been reached by the guy who bought and sold 250 NO and then bought 500 YES. Of course.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Clarification: do the 12 hours of belief being above 75% only begin counting down AFTER the 12 non-contiguous hours of being below 25% have completed? That is, if the market goes above 75% now, none of the time it’s in that state will “count”?
bought Ṁ30 of NO
Hasn't changed since my last comment.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
What are the current times?
bought Ṁ50 of NO
11 hours 52 minutes 55 seconds
bought Ṁ1 of YES
We are currently at 9 hours and ~3 minutes.
bought Ṁ55 of YES
this feels vaguely defect-y, but oh well
bought Ṁ1 of YES
We're currently at about 5 hours and 30 mintues.
bought Ṁ2 of YES
Love this question!
bought Ṁ13 of NO
I'll be using the data from `JSON.parse(document.getElementById('__NEXT_DATA__').text).props.pageProps.bets` to get more sig-figs (unless I find a better way). For example this transaction brought the price down to 0.2546... which is not low enough.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
... And the fist timer has started! (about 20 minutes ago) A positive resolution is getting more likely every minute!