Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 75% for at least 12 hours?
29
100Ṁ27kresolved Feb 22
Resolved
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Feb 16, 7:31pm: It does not have to be contiguous 12 hours.
Feb 19, 4:57pm: We've reached 12 hours under 25%!
Feb 19, 4:58pm: @Robert McIntyre Iarted at 0.7 would say the 75% countdown starts only after the 25% countdown ends. But in this case it doesn't matter because the market started at 74.99999999999999% thanks to floatingpointiness.
Feb 19, 6:00pm: I would*
Feb 20, 2:03pm: If the conditions are not satisfied by the time the market closes, the market resolves NO. It doesn't matter if the market is above or below 75% at that time.
Feb 22, 12:35am: I accidentally resolved this market when I meant to resolve one of my other markets :(
Please vote on https://manifold.markets/Yev/i-fucked-up-and-resolved-the-wrong
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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