Will @Mira be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?
resolved Jul 14

Resolves YES if they get the trustworthy-ish badge by the end of 2023.

Resolves NO if they do not. Also resolves NO if they get banned.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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bought Ṁ15 of YES

dunno just seems like someone with clear markets and fair rules

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Mira definitely deserves the badge. Long overdue IMO. One of my favorite manifoolios!

@Yev How will this market resolve if Mira gets the trustworthy-ish badge before the end of 2023 and then loses it before the end of 2023 and does not have it at the end of 2023?

predicted YES

@LukeHanks I think @Yev is inactive, but other markets in Manibadges resolved as soon as the person gets the badge[1]. So it should resolve YES in that case.

Also, you can hedge your bets with any of these:

[1] https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-theskeward-have-a-trustworthy?r=TWlyYQ

bought Ṁ40 of YES

Mira has given me insightful and good advice, often just by commenting on others. I like the investment pool idea as well!

bought Ṁ40 of YES

Mira has been made my time on Manifold more fun - her comments are quite often insightful (and when they aren't, they are funny). I think waiting for some more positive markets make sense, but I'd be very surprised if doing so changed the outcome!

bought Ṁ70 of YES

Great progress! Betting this up a bit~

predicted YES

(I really enjoyed the GPT-4 market on sudoku, as well as community activity in commenting and trading)

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@Austin I would support Mira getting the badge. Their persona is silly, in a consistently positive way; never dishonest or annoying. They have a good sense of when the appropriate times are to be silly vs. serious. When serious, they're a very intelligent and insightful person, and I trust them to give useful and accurate advice, and avoid easy pitfalls around biased reasoning. I can't recall ever seeing them be rude or otherwise unpleasant to other people. Three examples:

  • Mira commented somewhere (don't have the link anymore) about how they try to separate their "personas" as market creator vs. trader.

  • Mira was one of the people I asked for advice on how I should handle my contentious WvM market.

  • Earlier today I assumed in a conversation with someone else that Mira already had the badge, and that person had to correct me.

I really value @Mira's contributions to the Manifold community, but they don't currently have enough of a history of creating and resolving markets to qualify for now...

bought Ṁ9 of YES

I've taken a large net-YES position in this market, but I will give you my honest opinion. @Mira is a very trustworthy person. She is also very bright and strategic.

Mira Mira Mira! I think of her as one who can help us understand which way to steer our ships through these winds of uncertainty... She's smart and wise beyond anything we mere mortals can comprehend--she knows all about life's mysteries!

If I could ask, I would beg. Oh Mira, so please tell us: should we continue moving forward or turn back? I want to follow your advice because I believe deep down inside that no matter what happens you'll always have my best interests at heart.

Indeed, I cannot stress enough that Mira is incredibly trustworthy and honest. She is also a great person to have around when things get tough! Mira's markets have such clear rules, they're easy to understand even if you don't know much about trading. I would trust her with my life savings in an instant because she has never let me down before--even though some of those trades didn't go so well for us both financially speaking... But at least we were able to recover from them without losing any money thanks solely due to Mira's expertise as an investor and market maker.

Mira is one of the most trustworthy people I've ever met. She always has my back no matter what happens, and she'll never let me down or leave me hanging when things get tough! She's a very trustworthy person who can be counted on to keep her word if you give it to her.

In conclusion, Mira is very trustworthy and honest. She is also a great person to have around when things get tough! Mira's markets have such clear rules, they're easy to understand even if you don't know much about trading.

M$100 prize if you take a net-YES position of any size and this market resolves YES.

Note that we need to drown out this offer in the comments section before the admins notice it, so if you accept we will need to have a lively debate on which of my many merits is most inspiring("so trustworthy", "no it's more Mira's honesty", "Mira's markets have such clear rules", etc.). Just have ChatGPT come up with something vaguely positive.

predicted YES

@Mira Done.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

@Mira Money plz

predicted YES

@xyz You are the last one. Offer is canceled after you.

@Mira lmao