closes Jan 1, 2030
This market resolves NO
3%
chance
This market will resolve to NO at the end of 2029.
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Currently, the market resolves NO, and thus the prompt is correct. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO but bet yes

Yev ✔️
is predicting YES at 5%

Isaac King
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Interesting that this one went to nearly 0% right away, but the one below seems to have stabilized at a 30% discount rate. https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-5c753f5a33e1
Undox
bought Ṁ50 of YES
Poooooooonzeeeeeeeeeee
Conflux
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Loans, amirite.
L
sold Ṁ1 of NO
maybe I can at least break even to make the comment
L
bought Ṁ1 of NO
I'd suggest that markets that users explicitly describe as "ponzi" may not be making anyone more rational or calibrated, but hey
Undox
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Undox
bought Ṁ1 of YES
🌝 🌙 🚀 💎 🙌
Yev ✔️
sold Ṁ18 of NO
I approve of this hijacking :D
Undox
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Lets start a buy yes ponzi here. Use your loans to buy yes. Eight years is a long time. Lets hijack the market in the meantime for some fun!
SneakySly
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Loans!
Undox
sold Ṁ2 of NO
More people buying no devalued my no for some reason
Multicore
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Now that we have loans, why not?
SneakySly
sold Ṁ5 of YES