Notice the current usa-iran-israel stuff

I will not bet on this market

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if I fly to attend the European Summer Program on Rationality (ESPR) 2026 in Somerset, United Kingdom (scheduled from July 26 to August 5, 2026).

The market resolves to NO if I do not fly to ESPR 2026 for any reason (including flight cancellations, personal decisions, or event cancellation).

As I will not vote on this market, the resolution will be based on my updates in the comments or other verifiable announcements regarding my travel status.

Background

The European Summer Program on Rationality (ESPR) is an immersive 10-day workshop for mathematically talented students and mentors to explore cognitive science, game theory, and decision-making under uncertainty. The 2026 camp is scheduled to be held in Somerset, UK, from July 26 to August 5, 2026.

The "usa-iran-israel stuff" refers to the military conflict and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran that escalated in early 2026. This ongoing situation has led to recurring airspace restrictions and flight disruptions, potentially impacting travel for individuals residing in or routing through the region.

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