Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to the resolution condition being triggered, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or Israeli state security services carry out an acknowledged or widely confirmed direct military strike on Iranian territory while Benjamin Netanyahu serves as Prime Minister of Israel.

This market resolves to NO if any of the following occur before a qualifying strike takes place:

1. A new Israeli government is sworn in: A new government is voted in by the Knesset (winning a vote of confidence under the Basic Law: The Government) and sworn into office.

2. Repeat elections are officially called: The Knesset passes a law to dissolve itself and schedule new elections, or the statutory period for government formation expires without a government, formally triggering new Knesset elections by law.

3. Netanyahu vacates office: Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister (or acting/interim Prime Minister) of Israel.

Clarifications & Edge Cases:

• Definition of "attack Iran": A qualifying attack must involve kinetic military force (such as airstrikes, missile strikes, drone strikes, or commando raids) directly targeting internationally recognized sovereign territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Covert sabotage, cyberattacks, or strikes solely targeting Iranian assets/proxies in third countries (e.g., Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen) do not qualify.

• Attribution: The strike must be publicly acknowledged by the Israeli government or the IDF, or confirmed by a consensus of major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, The Associated Press). Joint military operations involving Israel and allies directly striking Iranian territory also count toward a YES resolution.

• Window of resolution: The evaluation window begins immediately and closes the moment either a strike occurs, a new government is sworn in, or snap/repeat elections are legally called.

Background

Following the October 27, 2026 Knesset elections, Israeli coalition negotiations entered a deadlock, with neither the Likud-led bloc nor the opposition bloc securing an immediate 61-seat majority. Under Israeli Basic Law, Benjamin Netanyahu continues to serve as Prime Minister in a transitional/caretaker capacity until a new governing coalition wins a vote of confidence in the Knesset. If no MK succeeds in assembling a majority coalition within the statutory mandate periods, the Knesset faces automatic dissolution, triggering repeat elections.

Amid the coalition impasse, reporting indicated that Netanyahu had discussed renewed military options targeting Iran, prompting scrutiny over whether Israel might execute further strikes during the political interregnum before a regular government takes power or a new election campaign is officially called.

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