Note for base rate purposes that IFT1 was on 4/20, and IFT3 was on 3/14.
The determinative date is the primary attempted launch date. If it is scheduled for one of these but scrubs to a different day, it still resolves YES. If it was scheduled for a different day but scrubs to one of these, it still resolves NO. If it is rescheduled not due to a scrub (eg for regulatory reasons) then I think we'll allow either one to qualify.
My primary source in case of ambiguity will be the "SpaceX is targeting a launch attempt on XXXXX. Launch date may delay." language on https://nextspaceflight.com/starship/ in advance of the launch (eg https://web.archive.org/web/20240311230700/https://nextspaceflight.com/starship/), but I can choose to override that if common sense so dictates.
If the launch ends up delayed past July, I reserve the right to add other meme-y dates to the question, probably max 1 date per calendar month.
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@Mqrius Creator has not made any bets or comments for some weeks, resolving No in the absence of the creator.
@Eliza Mind doing this one too?
https://manifold.markets/AnjanPoudel5d85/will-the-starship-booster-successfu?r=TXFyaXVz
@Mqrius There is a new feature, you type @ and mods right after it with no space, and then it just gets alerted to all the mods in a queue so you don't have to rely on one specific mod to be online.