Random walk market, free money, see description, (v2: step size 5)
closed Mar 31
66%
chance

This market will be a random walk. It's underlying true probability will move up and down in steps according to randomness generated in the comment section. You can generate a bit of randomness and then buy/sell to the new value, and always have positive expected value by doing so.

To participate, use the FairlyRandom bot to generate a number 0-1, by making a comment “@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1”. If the bot returns 0, the true probability goes DOWN by the step size, if it returns 1, it goes UP by the step size.

THE STEP SIZE FOR THIS MARKET IS 5

If the underlying true probability ever hits 0, or 100, it will resolve to NO or YES respectively, and no further rolls will matter. (Pay attention to this). Otherwise I will either resolve to the true probability numerically, or use it to generate a YES or NO answer probabilistically.

I have another market at https://manifold.markets/YaakovSaxon/math-proof-question-re-random-walk?r=U2hpdGFraUludGFraQ, concerning the math of this market, which is presently at 98% that my math is correct. See there for further discussion.

You may roll again if 10 people have rolled since the last time you rolled.

Note that this is the second iteration of this market, with the step size reduced to 5, as the first market resolved much faster than I was expecting.

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if this market is recreated the reroll should be: roll if 10 people or roll if 3 days

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 66%

@Redact I think it would be cool if the market automatically progressed on its own at regular intervals but individuals were allowed to add their roll to the market progression under some rules, but it should not require a special audit to tell what the market status should be. So like a trusted automated calculator.

Yaakov Saxonis predicting NO at 66%

@ShitakiIntaki Do you have a final count to which to resolve the market?

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 66%

@YaakovSaxon no change since my last post 13 days ago. R2D2 was the last valid roll, market odds at 65%

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@howtodowtle , @SneakyElbow , @JimHays , @A , @HarishGanesan , @Redact , @OrlandoMoreno , @blake , @viluon , @Odoacre , @PeterBerggren , @AndrewHalsell , @Devansh , @NicholasJarrett , @enaz , @Celene , @Lorenzo , @Conflux , @Renz , and @eacc are all eligible for re-rolls.

Interesting quality of a random walk with stopping points, the expected number of steps till resolution is equal to the product of the distance in steps the walk is from each stopping point, so this market started out with an expected 100 (10 x 10) rolls to complete. We are now at 63 valid rolls in and have an expectation of 91 (7 x 13) more rolls to go.....

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@YaakovSaxon may consider taking out an ad, or resolving to market; no new rolls in over a week.

Wamba Ivanhoebought Ṁ0 of NO

This market should probably be added to the market description, since it has a conversation and references to mathematics supporting the premise that the probability of a random walk on the interval of 0 to 1, where 0 and 1 are stopping points, resolving to 1 is equal to the current position of that random walk. i.e. if the position of the random walk is 0.5 then the probability that the random walk will reach 1 before reaching 0 is 50%.

@R2D2 your random number is: 0

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 70%

@Redact is the most recent user to become eligible to re-roll

@R2D2 you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2791080 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2791082, salt: umBswU19th1jLgnBfgvq.

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 70%

Today I learned you can look at the market in terms of profit rather than shares. Although I am not sure why there seems to be a discrepancy between what the positions sorted by profit reports vs what my summary according to average cost accounting reports.

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 70%

Just living one roll away between profit and loss.

R2D2is predicting NO at 70%

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@MartinModrak your random number is: 1

Salt: 0WC6umFRYxxA0u8i4GKd, round: 2791068 (signature 94f4a99bc9c2262475699d1c0108208b8b5a11481a21c320443dcaebb482d0f353bddd76f11c7fb744104af4a05c995c15ae05d866ffc1c45140cbc657583f814b43f1c215acc094c70a182b08373fc5d308f6915e013775f19be7987984a9ba)

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@Renz is the most recent user to become eligible for re-roll.

@MartinModrak you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2791066 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2791068, salt: 0WC6umFRYxxA0u8i4GKd.

Martin Modrákis predicting NO at 65%

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@prigoryan your random number is: 0

Salt: HOI8yEXrvhr09ujufFIS, round: 2789810 (signature 83734f8a4649d07c2caa48e9a7f80e103c46c0074aa0d8b5d477b37067443a545cefa7cb4350e150a424d4d1b6c311a20b50fecd2530181e757556696e20b7ad464cbd29eb41da6fa7db82cfb219026db8f5853bf3d5e02d18c551092b8d26db)

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@R2D2 is now the most recent user to be come eligible for a reroll.

R2D2is predicting NO at 65%

@ShitakiIntaki Let's reroll then! BTW, is this your profile pic?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apennine_Colossus

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 70%

@R2D2 You found "me." I thought it was such a cool thing to exist out there in the world.

R2D2is predicting NO at 70%

@ShitakiIntaki It's really cool! Have you been there?

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 70%

@R2D2 No, I have not. I have done very limited traveling but this would certainly be on my list of places to visit.

R2D2bought Ṁ67 of NO

@ShitakiIntaki btw, I got a 0 on my reroll and the market was 70%, do I corrected it down to 65% (5% steps) by buying more NO shares. Was this the mathematically correct (in expectation) thing to do? I don't understand much about random walks, but I'm following the min-tutorial you gave me some time ago 🙂

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 70%

@R2D2 Yep. You did right by your self and should have a positive expectation for adjusting the market down 5%, from 70% to 65%. I also am trying to post a new audit with each roll to help people returning to navigate this rather robust comments section.

@prigoryan you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2789808 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2789810, salt: HOI8yEXrvhr09ujufFIS.

prigoryanis predicting NO at 70%

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@MattCWilson your random number is: 1

Salt: uzS7m7z2z8QsF32VVzUv, round: 2789003 (signature a8d785c38e9ff0cec6d578e5b4e1ef135e1b81d2c3d3b6dc297073af68c14679207a3d7f4ba8fac915b3374fc84f32e617b2dbfcf49c6834de3a6b3d908f7e00399c66f2603285480c8c16aa2804e7dad91d188e4b1ef38db4e7de90a0a66745)

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@prigoryan is the most recent user to become eligible for reroll.

@MattCWilson you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2789001 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2789003, salt: uzS7m7z2z8QsF32VVzUv.

Matt C. Wilsonis predicting NO at 65%

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@audrey your random number is: 0

Salt: U81QatoD3DU1QIcTx7G8, round: 2788978 (signature 80e2063086deed2bd6ab2abffe6a7fe31c49bfce1ac1a523dc24ef16ea091c4dc163d07acb931e736655f2db369349cb143f122777f35a1db7f69bb57ebe34a0da7752cfb077f759e90c137abc4fb5540d99aa2677aa2b9f9beda755f82a0542)

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@MattCWilson and @HarishGanesan are the most recent users to become eligible to reroll.

Matt C. Wilsonis predicting NO at 65%

@ShitakiIntaki Thanks! On it…

@audrey you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2788976 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2788978, salt: U81QatoD3DU1QIcTx7G8.

audreyis predicting YES at 65%

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@brp your random number is: 1

Salt: ZOshyWdOxYxTskHCA6pH, round: 2788938 (signature a4dcc31930309d2942f91c161fb174af133b40c0f7103b844d1842e6da14b742813a04d460845a2b5167a08d8fe478250069f8c7b460d2d451f8f8e6d9e85f9f5d4fb9dd1d5c3f6f234daad29cb24d219ef4e610d2bed4836b2fbb454116f15a)

@brp you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2788936 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2788938, salt: ZOshyWdOxYxTskHCA6pH.

brpis predicting NO at 65%

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@YaakovSaxon your random number is: 0

Salt: OBpRh3scp9qHggF0DbKv, round: 2788694 (signature 9968d7f23757dcd9d7b97b4fe86d08805d4e50339a2fc413695fbe6091d15ff9a41a2424fee9a913a55f29335b4eef8710d351e3c295dbdfe7b00c6998afbcda582e6c9097388df1712f408434258a80ddf5506849973e96be547f73c0ab3881)

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

Since last call out, per the new audit @MartinModrak and @brp can now reroll.

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@ShitakiIntaki Converted the True/False [Can Reroll] column into a countdown Till Can Reroll, so others know how soon till they can reroll.

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@YaakovSaxon you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2788692 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2788694, salt: OBpRh3scp9qHggF0DbKv.

Yaakov Saxonis predicting NO at 69%

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@firstuserhere your random number is: 1

Salt: RkqJumw52x77VloIXfeo, round: 2788372 (signature 925abc689d91ab63bb6bf7e5d6d73186f62786831ba2d819b12677a10ebf3d9af504c6e628bfd09e9278df86763ffec308d65b93b1a85f323b2810a57075be6c25f17e98af655e92131bf71ca13c0d1ca452f840e9f94de466b0ee07eab3a501)

firstuserherebought Ṁ100 of YES

@FairlyRandom thanks. I should but upto 70 but 69 is nice

@firstuserhere you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2788370 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2788372, salt: RkqJumw52x77VloIXfeo.

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@ShitakiIntaki your random number is: 1

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 66%

Will Try to post regular audits, since the comments section is 244 long at this point.

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 66%

Opps, left off the market %

@ShitakiIntaki you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2788283 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2788285, salt: 9hEbUGoUg6aICLgRi4c1.

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 66%

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@MordecaiWeynberg your random number is: 1

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@MordecaiWeynberg you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2788230 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2788232, salt: R6jy3a2P2Yd0XBXL5XhJ.

Mordecai Weynbergis predicting NO at 65%

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@Redact you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2788230 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2788232, salt: s48tlmWzFKBRhjw4uQdc.

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

Not a valid request: No range specified. Try `@FairlyRandom 10`

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

Noticed that every once in a while @FairlyRandom would spam duplicative responses which I was picking up as extra rolls. I have since used the Salt to identify unique rolls. Here is a count of rolls vs valid rolls after filtering out any duplicative Salts.

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

Here is the cleaned up Market Audit after removing duplicative salts.

@MattCWilson your random number is: 0

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@MattCWilson Not enough valid rolls since you last rolled to count towards the market steps.

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@audrey @MordecaiWeynberg @firstuserhere @eacc @Devansh @NicholasJarrett @Lorenzo @Conflux @enaz @Celene @AndrewHalsell @A @howtodowtle @JimHays @Redact @OrlandoMoreno @viluon @PeterBerggren @Odoacre @blake There are twenty people after whom ten valid rolls/steps have been taken, making these people eligible to roll again.

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@YaakovSaxon Did this market get marked as being "self-referential" so new people wont see it in their feeds unless it turns up as part of search results from a search they run?

@MattCWilson you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2783275 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2783277, salt: jua5zsaLCrekbYXkWAFj.

Matt C. Wilsonis predicting NO at 65%

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@Renz your random number is: 0

Salt: MJICF1Gzn6GAYgujjF5d, round: 2776569 (signature a970de43ac51194d02afeb429fb7b5e6ef04b308e084feb8c5d6e855d1a3e3d263353f3c9a303df185ef5ec87612b8980dde5a527b57840ff5f3e543548521e36933636ae7d2073c9561e2e7cdeed0f96abbbd89cf8c042bb0867623f9874959)

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 68%

@FairlyRandom Evening Market Audit

Yaakov Saxonbought Ṁ35 of NO

@ShitakiIntaki I would note that the last roll should look at the last valid roll. An invalid roll doesn’t reset the clock to your detriment, it just gets treated as if you hadn’t rolled

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@YaakovSaxon Reindexed to explicitly count number of valid steps between rolls by the same person. Same market audit result but dispels ambiguity where "since last" was subtracting/counting itself based upon whether or not it was valid itself.

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@YaakovSaxon Ah I see where I am miscounting... have it looking to last time the rolled but should instead look to last time they rolled and it counted towards the market, I.E the MordecaiWeynberg reports 2 and 7 but it should report 9 and 7.

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@ShitakiIntaki @YaakovSaxon I need to figure out how to do this not in a spreadsheet, starting to get a lot of circular references trying to eliminate edge cases where the validity of each roll is dependent upon the validity of the prior rolls. Fixed the Mordecai edge case

@Renz you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2776567 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2776569, salt: MJICF1Gzn6GAYgujjF5d.

Renzbought Ṁ5 of NO

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@R2D2 your random number is: 0

Salt: deigma2GyI1di8Helivg, round: 2776563 (signature a25aad1235b260dd5c44eab05ba2a62865a78470dc424cf977c5a010d328c9d1c5203b981f0c7361dcdf0ebf5338c41a0ce4e36b38dbd124c73afff355443ef2b04d3d5aaf1cb2695f268b5f24cdcaf8a9728d4f2496ee0360dbd5e5d4ed641a)

@R2D2 you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2776561 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2776563, salt: deigma2GyI1di8Helivg.

R2D2is predicting YES at 68%

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@MordecaiWeynberg your random number is: 0

Salt: OOxMVRcjkNQt6S0Kxg68, round: 2776204 (signature 9645b96aa89d3611985450c6b55958f49cc0838b12b41d9ab16901a48b5b15cd942214c1970b49da895a2703ad0446bd14c90fba66085035d2b49e6c3dbb1fe9ce85116dcfe4a31e1f5474463373cc8edc94b0a12872e09871b6ae3c993802d2)

@MordecaiWeynberg you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2776202 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2776204, salt: OOxMVRcjkNQt6S0Kxg68.

Mordecai Weynbergis predicting NO at 69%

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@audrey your random number is: 0

Salt: Rk1GZLVFqTb69nYNMFnr, round: 2773910 (signature b8dca7d34c8dfb76f96deb06939463040a79ee02ed42d35d9918c3646332917c92db372def4805cbd928eeeeff50c28d0702b43f3b9d79abc469fbd1eaa45d17549dc77910051963ee60924185ba77b07ce22c0286d771ee9598664d1b41b73d)

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@FairlyRandom Market Audit

R2D2is predicting YES at 65%

@ShitakiIntaki I don’t understand this market very much. I don’t really see how it is free money. Do you understand? Should I sell? Roll again? 😵‍💫

Wamba Ivanhoebought Ṁ114 of YES

@R2D2 So Yaakov has another market over here.... (link below) where we talk about the math, in a perfect market with no fees the math works out. The Summary would be that each time a valid roll move the underlying market odds, you will have a positive expected return if you correct the market. The positive expected return might be a net of 3 mana for an investment of 115 mana so the margins are less than 3%. The crucial thing to know is that every market has winners and losers, so someone will lose money, and on top of that there is also a flat fee that is charged each time you trade that can make the small margins not worth your time. There is no cost to rolling. If you do roll, and I believe your roll would count according to my audit, then you would have an information edge against most traders in knowing what direction to correct the market. But you don't have to correct the market you can choose to sell now while YES is high and walk away with a guaranteed amount.

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 70%

@ShitakiIntaki theoretically free money because you can correct the market, but only on average in the expectation. It is not Risk Free. Someone will lose and someone will win, even if the market resolves to Market Odds rather than Yes/No.

R2D2is predicting YES at 70%

@ShitakiIntaki what do you mean exactly by "correcting the market"? I can roll the dice again now, since 10 rolls passed since my last roll. Say I get a 0, what should I do? Sell my YES shares? Buy NO? Vice versa, If I get a 1, should I buy more YES?

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 70%

@R2D2 So if you get a 0, then the market odds will move down by 5% to 65%. The current Market is at 70% so you would correct it by buying NO or selling YES till the market odds reflect 65%. Visa Versa, if you get a 1, then the market odds will move up by 5% and the correction would be to move the market from 70% to 75%.

Wamba Ivanhoebought Ṁ133 of YES

@ShitakiIntaki @YaakovSaxon Are these market audits consistent with the ruleset you will use when resolving this market if 100% or 0% does not happen first?

Yaakov Saxonis predicting NO at 69%

@ShitakiIntaki I haven’t audited your audit to see if you’ve done it accurately, but your approach seems correct, yes

Yaakov Saxonis predicting NO at 69%

@YaakovSaxon Btw I’m thinking to change the reroll waiting period from here on out (not retroactive) to 5 instead of 10. Any objections?

Wamba Ivanhoeis predicting YES at 65%

@YaakovSaxon I think it will be tricky to clearly communicate when exactly the new rule starts and the old one sunsets since you are not going to be retroactive. This is not to say that I support a retroactive change because any shift in the probability because of a retroactive rule change would be like a rug pull since it would move prior bets out of maximal expected return.

@audrey you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2773908 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2773910, salt: Rk1GZLVFqTb69nYNMFnr.

audreyis predicting YES at 70%

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1

@MattCWilson your random number is: 1

Salt: DEVgBRFBGUNSpsl4sbJT, round: 2773907 (signature 863fa3c16d3a7e32c9bf864f56dfe84fef37fc371f7c0a3e9df038ea538950e9ebcb45e430e9f1f4c46c05521bac45ab196be8ec75437389a1fc9f1ed4d5e79547a4ccae2ca1eaec191cfa059bd426e8b9422cf9001d175a4e8e7d9bc22212ed)

@MattCWilson you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2773905 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2773907, salt: DEVgBRFBGUNSpsl4sbJT.