Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2031, at 11:59 PM UTC, Iran officially ceases to be an Islamic Republic.

• This transition will be defined by the occurrence of any of the following events, as recognized by the United Nations and major international news outlets (such as Reuters, BBC, or the Associated Press):

  1. The official name of the nation is formally changed from the "Islamic Republic of Iran" to a name that does not include "Islamic Republic."

  2. The current constitution of Iran is abolished, permanently suspended, or formally amended to remove the system of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist) or the definition of the state as an Islamic Republic.

  3. The ruling clerical regime is overthrown, dissolved, or replaced by a governing authority that declares the end of the Islamic Republic, provided this change remains the de facto governing reality as of the resolution date.

• If, as of December 31, 2031, the state remains constitutionally defined as the Islamic Republic of Iran, this market resolves to NO.

• Brief periods of civil war, transition, or unrest where the regime's control is contested do not trigger a YES resolution unless a formal change in the state's system or name is successfully implemented and maintained through December 31, 2031.

Background

• Iran has been constitutionally designated as the "Islamic Republic of Iran" since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which established a political system overseen by a Supreme Leader (Vali-ye Faqih).

• According to Article 177 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Islamic character of the government, the democratic formulation of laws, and the state's religious foundation are theoretically unalterable. Consequently, any shift away from being an Islamic Republic would require a fundamental regime change, revolution, or total constitutional replacement.

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