Will I end up with a positive record by the end of 2023
closes Dec 31

To be more clear, when I mean my "record" I mean the number of resolved markets I have been correct VS the number of markets that resolved whete I have been incorrect. Feel free to check my current markets to get an edge.

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IsaacKing avatar

To clarify, this resolves based on whether your total profit in each market was positive or negative?

5 replies
XavierBaton avatar
Xavier Batonpredicts YES

@IsaacKing I was thinking about how many markets did I correctly predicted. At least that's what I meant when I created this market. Because as for how many mana do I bet, I kind of do it randomly

IsaacKing avatar

@XavierBaton I don't know what "correctly predicted" means. You're not making single YES/NO predictions, you're placing any number of bets at specific probabilities.

XavierBaton avatar
Xavier Batonpredicts YES

@IsaacKing Ohhh maybe I didn't really understood the way Manifold markets work. To me a "correct prediction". Is one where the market is solved, the same way I predicted.

IsaacKing avatar

@XavierBaton Well that's probably why you're doing so poorly. :)

If you bet YES 3 times at 10% each, one of those markets resolves YES and two resolve NO, you've "lost" more markets than you've "won", but you still turned a profit. Good prediction is about probabilities, not certainties.

XavierBaton avatar
Xavier Batonpredicts YES

@XavierBaton I was gonna say that. But then I thought it might make the market too biased toward No, and then make it harder for me to buy Yes shares again. And I was also concerned I wouldn't be able to easily track my overall profit. And thought the other method would be easier

XavierBaton avatar
Xavier Batonpredicts YES

Guys ... Not cool, not cool 😭