U.S. inflation from December 2022 to June 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0%, 3.0%.
Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI in the U.S. be 3.3% or less in July 2023?
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0 (306.053108)
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting (forecast)
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Wow, tradingeconomics is forecasting 2.8%. Lower YoY in July compared to June would seem to require a negative MoM print since MoM inflation in July 2022 was 0.0%.
Yet TE is also forecasting +0.1% for Jul MoM. Seems like an inconsistency, though a change in the seasonal adjustment factors compared to last year might explain it. But they're certainly forecasting low inflation in July however you read it.
Cleveland Fed nowcast has 3.35% YoY as a result of 0.34% MoM. They've been overshooting during disinflation, to be sure, but that's a big gap between them and TE.