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Closing level I am seeing is 4179.83. Waiting a day to see if it gets updated. I need to have the exact closing level for future reference, and the description cannot be edited after resolution.

@XComhghall So you will close the market today at end of day yes?

@ScipioFabius Yes. Plan to do so by 5 p.m. PDT.

@XComhghall okey, understood. Thank you

well it was fun, sorry if my constant trading bothered anyone

@deagol I don’t care if anyone day trades, I think it’s great. Arbing with or without a bot makes sense to me as well. Were you arbing another market?

Buying and selling the same contract within a minute multiple times (with no one else trading in between) is just churn. I don’t understand why anyone would do that.

To be clear, if this is what you want to do, it’s not any of my business. I am just trying to understand.

@JimAusman I was arbing against my estimate of the probability (based on the index distance from 4167, volatility, and time left) adjusted for my position size. This market was very biased up to yesterday due to debt ceiling relief hopes, and especially today before 1-2 PM when it finally got some breathing room >0.5% from the threshold. I think this allowed me to have the best chances of capitalizing on my NO bet if the market had not turned at noon, while still being able to unwind my position most efficiently.

@deagol Thank you for the detailed explanation. I had some similar ideas but did not do as much trading as you did.

What is the point of this?

@JimAusman not ai

@JimAusman Have you heard of daytrading?

@NicoDelon why? this not it

@deagol It’s a close enough analogy. I’m actively buying and selling within the same day. My bets have no predictive basis.

@NicoDelon so i should do an arb bot i guess? nah this is fine

@deagol I was asking Jim not you. You’re doing just fine!

@NicoDelon ah ok cool. back to it

@JimAusman

What is the point of this?

ok i’m done for now. One point was to get me out of my big NO position going into today without incurring a huge loss. I think I may have cut the potential loss by 70%.

@JimAusman and around noon I could’ve kept the position if the market went that way, was flat for the month at that point. I had >2k NO at that time.

4168 subtract 4167 carry the one ugh forget math can’t fall absolute floor aand raised ceiling no default!

This one’s actually gonna be close, y’all. It’s down almost 20 in the first half hour, putting the month at +0.45%

Minor point, but wouldn’t the usual method be to measure from the close of April, not opening of May? If the stocks close higher on Tuesday they closed on Monday, we say they were up on Tuesday, even if they opened higher on Tuesday than their close on Tuesday.

@Radicalia in meaning 'within'. Suppose that it closed at 4,000 on Friday, opened at 4,100 on Monday, and decreased throughout the day to 4,001. Yes, it is up from Friday, but the movement within the time period from open to close on Monday is kind of overlooked. So I wanted to separate the effects of higher / lower opening price and movement within a month / quarter / year.

It's currently down by 20 points with 6 days left? Gotta be below 50%, no?

Doubling down on No - us default risk will lead to risk off. Will be instantly wrong is a deal is made before 6/1

I am a legendary trader in financial markets so it would be unwise to fade me unless you enjoy losing M$.