Will S&P 500 increase in May 2023?
resolved Jun 1

The S&P closed at 4076.60 in January, 3970.15 in February, 4109.31 in March, and 4169.48 in April. Will it increase from open on 2023-05-01 (4166.79) to close on 2023-05-31 (4179.83)?

Source: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
XComhghall avatar
XComhghall (edited)

Closing level I am seeing is 4179.83. Waiting a day to see if it gets updated. I need to have the exact closing level for future reference, and the description cannot be edited after resolution.

ScipioFabius avatar
Scipio Fabiuspredicted YES at 99.1% (edited)

@XComhghall So you will close the market today at end of day yes?

XComhghall avatar
XComhghallpredicted YES at 99.1% (edited)

@ScipioFabius Yes. Plan to do so by 5 p.m. PDT.

ScipioFabius avatar
Scipio Fabiuspredicted YES at 99.3%

@XComhghall okey, understood. Thank you

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellosold Ṁ486 of YES

well it was fun, sorry if my constant trading bothered anyone

JimAusman avatar

@deagol I don’t care if anyone day trades, I think it’s great. Arbing with or without a bot makes sense to me as well. Were you arbing another market?

Buying and selling the same contract within a minute multiple times (with no one else trading in between) is just churn. I don’t understand why anyone would do that.

To be clear, if this is what you want to do, it’s not any of my business. I am just trying to understand.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted YES at 99.0% (edited)

@JimAusman I was arbing against my estimate of the probability (based on the index distance from 4167, volatility, and time left) adjusted for my position size. This market was very biased up to yesterday due to debt ceiling relief hopes, and especially today before 1-2 PM when it finally got some breathing room >0.5% from the threshold. I think this allowed me to have the best chances of capitalizing on my NO bet if the market had not turned at noon, while still being able to unwind my position most efficiently.

JimAusman avatar
Jimpredicted YES at 99.0%

@deagol Thank you for the detailed explanation. I had some similar ideas but did not do as much trading as you did.

JimAusman avatar

What is the point of this?

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellosold Ṁ44 of YES

@JimAusman not ai

NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dbought Ṁ20 of YES

@JimAusman Have you heard of daytrading?

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted YES at 88%

@NicoDelon why? this not it

NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dpredicted YES at 89%

@deagol It’s a close enough analogy. I’m actively buying and selling within the same day. My bets have no predictive basis.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellosold Ṁ88 of YES

@NicoDelon so i should do an arb bot i guess? nah this is fine

NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dpredicted YES at 89%

@deagol I was asking Jim not you. You’re doing just fine!

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellobought Ṁ44 of YES

@NicoDelon ah ok cool. back to it

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellosold Ṁ3 of NO


What is the point of this?

ok i’m done for now. One point was to get me out of my big NO position going into today without incurring a huge loss. I think I may have cut the potential loss by 70%.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tello

@JimAusman and around noon I could’ve kept the position if the market went that way, was flat for the month at that point. I had >2k NO at that time.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellobought Ṁ0 of YES

4168 subtract 4167 carry the one ugh forget math can’t fall absolute floor aand raised ceiling no default!

LBeesley avatar
Spongpadpredicted YES at 89%

This one’s actually gonna be close, y’all. It’s down almost 20 in the first half hour, putting the month at +0.45%

Radicalia avatar
Radicaliabought Ṁ10 of NO

Minor point, but wouldn’t the usual method be to measure from the close of April, not opening of May? If the stocks close higher on Tuesday they closed on Monday, we say they were up on Tuesday, even if they opened higher on Tuesday than their close on Tuesday.

XComhghall avatar

@Radicalia in meaning 'within'. Suppose that it closed at 4,000 on Friday, opened at 4,100 on Monday, and decreased throughout the day to 4,001. Yes, it is up from Friday, but the movement within the time period from open to close on Monday is kind of overlooked. So I wanted to separate the effects of higher / lower opening price and movement within a month / quarter / year.

BenjaminShindel avatar
Benjamin Shindelbought Ṁ20 of NO

It's currently down by 20 points with 6 days left? Gotta be below 50%, no?

EdwardOrsi avatar
Edward Orsibought Ṁ42 of NO

Doubling down on No - us default risk will lead to risk off. Will be instantly wrong is a deal is made before 6/1

BowTrix avatar
BowTrixpredicted NO at 48%

I am a legendary trader in financial markets so it would be unwise to fade me unless you enjoy losing M$.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tello


XComhghall avatar

@deagol It showed 4167.44 as the 5/1 open price a few days ago...

EdwardOrsi avatar
Edward Orsibought Ṁ10 of NO

Soft no as of 5/1 - debt ceiling and geopolitics will creat volatility. Still possible recession coming up as well

XComhghall avatar

Related markets

Will S&P 500 increase in June 2023?66%
Will S&P 500 increase overall in 2023?79%
Will S&P 500 increase in Q2 2023?82%
Will S&P 500 increase in 2024?79%
Will S&P 500 increase more than Nasdaq Composite in (any one month) May, June, or July 2023?58%
Will the S&P 500 close at an all time high in 2023?30%
31. Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?82%
Will Dow Jones increase more than S&P 500 in May, June, or July 2023 (any one month)?59%
Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2024?69%
What will the S&P 500 price be on July 1, 2023?4192
32. Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2023?31%
Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033?55%
Will S&P500 close above 4400 at the end of 2023?37%
Will the S&P 500 close above 4000 at the end of 2023?84%
Will the S&P 500 index close both 10% above and 10% below 2022 closing price in 2023?21%
Will the S&P 500 surpass it's intraday all-time high of 4,818.62 before 2024?28%
Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 7th than it closed on June 6th?52%
Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 8th than it closed on June 7th?56%
What will be the closing (points) of the S&P 500 (^GSPC) on the final trading day of 2023?3889
Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 9th than it closed on June 8th?52%