[FPSBA] I'm auctioning away Ṁ1000. Will more than 7 valid bids be placed?
16
73
330
resolved Jan 28
Resolved
NO

I am running an auction. To the winner, I will send a manalink for Ṁ1000. This market resolves based on number of valid bids. The rules are as follows:

This market is one in a series of different types of auctions. This auction will be structured as a first-price sealed-bid auction. If you would like to participate all you have to do is send me a manalink equal to the amount you would like to bid (the minimum is just Ṁ10, but you can only place 1 bid). You can do this on Discord (DesTiny#9607). Once I claim your manalink, your bid is confirmed.

After closing I will go through each bid amount and find the highest bid, and when that happens I will publicize the bid and give out the winnings. In this auction no bid will be public until the end unless done so by that bidder themself.

An example auction, Alice sends me a manalink for Ṁ100. Alice has the highest bid. Bob then sends me a manalink for Ṁ200, and Bob has the highest bid. Even if Alice learns that her bid has been overtaken she may not rebid her opponent. If no one outbids Bob by market close, I will send him Ṁ1000 and he turns a profit of Ṁ800.

To be clear, your bet will not be public until the end of the auction, so the goal of the auction is to bet as low as possible while still having the highest bet. All unsuccessful bids (any that weren’t the top bid) will be returned making it impossible for me to profit, though I will wait until the auction is closed to return bids so as to not give away too much. If you have any questions please ask

Thanks to @yaboi69 for coming to me with the idea for these markets!

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#NameTotal profit
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predicted YES

How many bets and who won?

@Yoav like I said in the other one @Zardoru won, there was only 3 bids lol

predicted YES

Wow, what was the bid?

@Yoav he outbid you by 9 mana lol, it was 760

predicted YES

@DesTiny Damn tough

I have all current bids put down, and will announce the winners tomorrow morning. All I'm waiting for now is any last second bids 😁

🚨 Today is the final day for auctions 🚨

predicted YES

@DesTiny Easy money people

If every yes buyer bids even 1M, this should be pretty easy.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@Yoav *10M

Doesn’t Bob turn a profit of 800?

The numbers used in the example with Alice and Bob do not match the title, as the example auction is for M$500, rather than M$1000. I assume the title is correct, but it may be worth clarifying.

@UnconditionalProbability hey thanks, when I was first writing this I was gonna only do Ṁ500, but then @yaboi69 gave me some to make them Ṁ1000

predicted YES

Insurance market just in case:

Wait, so when Alice sends the bid do you claim it and keep it even if Alice doesn't win? That's not a first price auction, that's a dollar auction.

Ok based on the comment on the other market you are refunding the losing bids. https://manifold.markets/DesTiny/english-im-auctioning-away-m1000-wi#aIw3X7mzSB3NLuY2Hbev

Seems odd to require payment for all bids in advance.

@jack I wont accept any until the end of the auction, I just don't want anyone to make a fraudulent bid, but yes anyone who isn't the highest bid wont be accept