Will the price of Bitcoin be at least $60,000 in 2040 (assuming humanity survives)?
12
92
270
2041
83%
chance

This market is conditional on humanity surviving to 2040 without any major civilizational collapse occurring. Specifically, if at least 5 billion humans are killed within three consecutive years before the market is resolved, then the market resolves to N/A. (If 5 billion humans willingly upload their minds and let their biological bodies die, or something else in this spirit occurs, that is not considered a civilizational collapse and so would not cause the market to resolve N/A.)

Resolves YES if, conditional on no civilizational collapse, the price of Bitcoin is at least $60,000 USD for at least 24 hours straight at any point in 2040 (where the exact beginning and end of 2040 is based on Pacific Time). Resolves NO otherwise.

Also resolves NO if Bitcoin no longer exists and is therefore worth nothing. However, if Bitcoin just rebrands or otherwise transforms into a different (but similar) currency such that previous owners of Bitcoin are automatically given the new currency, market resolution will be based on the price of this new version of Bitcoin.

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