I’d like to make markets about big-picture questions that people disagree over and that don’t have clear resolution criteria. We may remain deeply uncertain about these questions for a long time.

So far, in these cases, I’ve defined resolution criteria based on future expert consensus. Variations on this I’ve tried:

1. /WinstonOswaldDrummond/are-any-insects-sentient-resolution - Market resolves based on expert consensus on a specific year, and resolves N/A if clear expert consensus is not reached by then.

2. /WinstonOswaldDrummond/does-some-form-of-libertarian-free - Market resolves as soon as expert consensus is reached, and stays open indefinitely if no consensus is reached.

3. /WinstonOswaldDrummond/is-max-tegmarks-mathematical-univer - Market resolves as soon as expert consensus is reached, after a given period where the market remains open to allow time for the question to be given proper consideration. The market stays open indefinitely if no consensus is reached.

However, people may still disagree about who the relevant experts are, what their consensus is, how much we can trust (future) experts, and if there even will be any experts on the matter. Ideally, I’d like to be able to make markets about these big-picture questions which only incentivize trading on the plausibility of the question, not on unrelated specifics about things like how much to trust expert consensus. That is, I’m just using consensus as a proxy to ask the question directly (when there aren't clear resolution criteria). But if people disagree that this is a good proxy, they won’t bet in the market in the way I want them to.

Other resolution criteria options include making markets that never resolve or that resolve to whatever the market thinks after a given amount of time. But these options seem less tied to the correct answer to the big-picture question and more subject to market manipulation.

Does anyone have ideas for better resolution criteria to get around these issues? If so, you can tell me and bet YES in this market to make a profit. If I implement a new idea (that was suggested before August 1) to help solve this issue that I think improves things to a non-negligible degree, I’ll resolve this market to YES. Otherwise, this market resolves NO.