Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the first date on which the entirety of the North Kaibab Trail (from the North Kaibab Trailhead to Phantom Ranch) officially reopens to public foot traffic, according to the National Park Service (NPS).

• Definition of "Open": The trail is considered open once hikers are officially permitted to travel the continuous route from the North Kaibab Trailhead to Phantom Ranch. Restrictions such as "foot traffic only" (suspension of stock/mule use) or trail advisories will still count as open, as long as the entire corridor is no longer under a hard closure.

• Overlapping Closures: Prior to the August 29, 2026 flash floods, a scheduled hard closure of a section of the trail (between Redwall Bridge and Cottonwood Campground) was planned for Transcanyon Waterline construction from October 15, 2026, through approximately February 2027.

  • If the trail reopens from the flood damage before October 15, 2026, the market will resolve to that initial reopening date.

  • If the trail does not reopen before October 15, 2026, the market will resolve to the eventual date when the entire trail is open to public foot traffic following the completion of both the flood repairs and the scheduled pipeline construction (expected in early 2027 or later).

• Source of Truth: The primary source of truth is the Grand Canyon National Park Key Hiking Messages page or official NPS press releases.

Background

On August 29, 2026, a severe flash flood hit Bright Angel Canyon, destroying nearly all footbridges spanning Bright Angel Creek, damaging the Transcanyon Waterline, and forcing an emergency evacuation of hikers. Consequently, the National Park Service closed Phantom Ranch and the entire North Kaibab Trail indefinitely.

This emergency closure comes just before a previously scheduled "hard closure" of a critical section of the trail (between Redwall Bridge and Cottonwood Campground) for waterline rehabilitation work, which is set to run from October 15, 2026, through February 2027. Because of this timeline, the trail may remain closed continuously from the August 2026 flood until the pipeline work is completed in 2027.

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