On Saturday, July 18, 2026, Josh Kerr will make an official attempt to break Hicham El Guerrouj's 27-year-old men's outdoor mile world record of 3:43.13 (set in July 1999) during the Emsley Carr Mile at the London Diamond League (Novuna London Athletics Meet).
Kerr's project is called "Project 222" because his goal is to complete the mile in 222 seconds (a 3:42.XX mile). Or beat his current mile PR by 2.22s. (Kerr's Mile PR: 3:45.34m, set at the 2024 Prefontaine Classic, so a 2.22s PR would be a 3:43.12 WR.)
The Competitors: The field is highly competitive and includes American star Yared Nuguse, who has a faster personal best (3:43.97) than Kerr.
Forecasting Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve according to the time that Josh Kerr runs in the Emsley Carr Mile at the London Diamond League on Saturday, July 18, 2026, as recorded by the official timing provider and ratified by World Athletics.
(Note: If the race is cancelled or postponed to a later date, this question will resolve ambiguously. However, if the race is held, but Kerr does not finish or does not start, the market will resolve to >3:45.63.)
1,000Many people have made predicted exact times, and a few others have given forecasts, but I haven't seen any prediction market on this question, so I had to make one. It remains an open question whether the market consensus is that Josh has a 5% chance or a 50% chance of breaking the WR tomorrow. https://www.reddit.com/r/trackandfield/comments/1ux9yge/how_fast_will_josh_kerr_run_this_mile_in_london/