The Nelson Memo requires the immediate free availability, upon publication, of any papers detailing the results of federally-funded research. The policy also requires the research data behind those papers to be made publicly available at the time of publication, and all the data collected throughout the course of the funding award to be publicly released.

This market will resolve Yes if, by July 1, the memo is official US government policy AND funding has been approved for implementation or there's a credible path for funding the requirements of the memo.

According to OSTP, the average APC for a federally-funded paper is around $4,000. About 146,000 papers were published last year with NIH funding, so that's about $584M.

Compliance with the data sharing requirements is estimated around $2.1B, based on the Realities of Academic Data Sharing (RADS) Initiative estimate of $36,000 per NIH grant for the recipient’s data management and sharing and 60000 NIH grants per year.

New market for EOY2025 here: https://manifold.markets/WilliamGunn/nelson-memo-on-public-sharing-of-fe?r=V2lsbGlhbUd1bm4