26% chance. Will resolve YES if I test positive on any high-specificity COVID test (most likely to be a rapid antigen or PCR test) before the end of 2023. Otherwise, NO. Ask forecast-relevant questions in the comments, and I will make a good faith effort to answer them. Info I think will be helpful: As of Nov 30, 2022, I have had COVID once (in August 2022). My current strategy for COVID is "vaccinate and bug-chase". I'll get any future updated vaccines, but besides that I will take no precautions. My theory is that I'll keep my immunity current by getting exposed to each new strain as it arrives and that this is (a) likely to result in no infection severe enough to notice/test positive and (b) almost certain to result in no severe consequences of infection. I live in Seattle, WA, USA Relevant previous markets: https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-i-get-covid-in-2022-67b0e9b79c1d https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-i-get-covid-a-second-time-in-2-120f9ab5a1c2 Close date updated to 2023-12-15 9:00 pm