Will any Big Tech Company Start a Public Prediction Market by the end of July 2027
51
Ṁ15kṀ32k2027
5%
Google
62%
Meta
14%
Amazon
13%
Microsoft
6%
OpenAI
6%
Anthropic
14%
SpaceXAi
10%
Bytedance
12%
Reddit
6%
Discord
Resolves YES for a company if, by July 31, 2027, it operates or officially launches a publicly accessible product where users can make predictions on uncertain future events and receive either real money, prizes, points, or play money based on accuracy.
The product must be available to the general public or a broad public region, not merely announced, invite-only, employee-only, or in closed beta. Third-party integrations do not count (e.g., operated by Kalshi but advertised/one-click on Amazon).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Bandors Agree they are the most likely! Thinking about it vs actually executing are different stories though. Example: Apple Car
@WillJevons This is also not the first time Meta attempted this, they operated "Forecast" from 2020 to 2021.