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MANIFOLD
Will any Big Tech Company Start a Public Prediction Market by the end of July 2027
51
Ṁ15kṀ32k
2027
5%
Google
62%
Meta
14%
Amazon
13%
Microsoft
6%
OpenAI
6%
Anthropic
14%
SpaceXAi
10%
Bytedance
12%
Reddit
6%
Discord

Resolves YES for a company if, by July 31, 2027, it operates or officially launches a publicly accessible product where users can make predictions on uncertain future events and receive either real money, prizes, points, or play money based on accuracy.

The product must be available to the general public or a broad public region, not merely announced, invite-only, employee-only, or in closed beta. Third-party integrations do not count (e.g., operated by Kalshi but advertised/one-click on Amazon).

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@WillJevons The only company on this list that I know has an internal prediction market platform.

bought Ṁ50 YES

iirc Facebook announced a Manifold Markets clone. Fake money prediction markets.

@Bandors Agree they are the most likely! Thinking about it vs actually executing are different stories though. Example: Apple Car

bought Ṁ50 YES

@WillJevons This is also not the first time Meta attempted this, they operated "Forecast" from 2020 to 2021.