Resolves YES for a company if, by July 31, 2027, it operates or officially launches a publicly accessible product where users can make predictions on uncertain future events and receive either real money, prizes, points, or play money based on accuracy.
The product must be available to the general public or a broad public region, not merely announced, invite-only, employee-only, or in closed beta. Third-party integrations do not count (e.g., operated by Kalshi but advertised/one-click on Amazon).
1,000@WillJevons Does Amazon’s existing Twitch Channel Points Predictions qualify under “operates or officially launches,” or do you require a new launch after this market’s creation and/or exclude wholly owned subsidiaries? Twitch’s current docs describe viewers predicting event outcomes and winning points: Prediction . Twitch confirms Amazon ownership here: 16 Years Of Twitch . Asking about scope, not assuming an existing product satisfies “Start.” No position.
@Bandors Agree they are the most likely! Thinking about it vs actually executing are different stories though. Example: Apple Car
@WillJevons This is also not the first time Meta attempted this, they operated "Forecast" from 2020 to 2021.