Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if Sławomir Mentzen receives the highest percentage of votes in at least one county (powiat) in the first round of the 2025 Polish presidential election, which is scheduled for May 18, 2025. It resolves to NO if he fails to win in any county. If Mentzen ties for first place with another candidate in the decisive county (or counties), the market resolves 50/50. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond 2025, the market resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on official election results from Poland's National Electoral Commission (Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent2025/). The election results should be announced within 2-3 days.

Background

Sławomir Mentzen is a Polish politician, economist, and tax advisor who has gained significant popularity, especially among younger voters. He is the leader of the New Hope (Nowa Nadzieja) party and co-leader of the Confederation (Konfederacja) political alliance. His platform focuses on national sovereignty, economic freedom, traditional values, and a more skeptical stance toward Ukraine, which resonates with certain segments of the Polish electorate.

Poland consists of 380 counties (powiats), which are the second-level administrative divisions in country.