AI companies including OpenAI seem to launch models on Tuesdays. Will this trend continue? Clearly one of the most important questions in AI forecasting today!
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@StephenMalina Ah, more straightforward than I was expecting.
I wonder if that's hard and fast such that an unexpected 1 day delay would cause them to delay a full week 🤔
Maybe it should be higher than ~50%, maybe even ~90% if they've never broken this trend before on even small models/model updates.
@NevinWetherill yeah to clarify, I haven't confirmed the strength of the trend beyond the tweet, which I now can't find
@StephenMalina GPT-4o was launched on a Monday (May 13, 2024), o1-preview on a Thursday (September 12, 2024) and the full release of o1 also on a Thursday (December 5, 2024). I don't think that this is a real trend.