Would you take a trade that has 90% chance but at risk of losing everything?
5
100Ṁ101
Aug 8
52%
chance

  • Update 2025-07-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified this is a general question about risk. The potential gain is intentionally undefined, as the premise is that it could be any bet with a 90% chance to win versus a 10% chance to lose everything.

  • Update 2025-07-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the potential gain from the 90% chance bet is a HUGE reward. While the exact reward is up to your imagination, it must be considered huge.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Winning the lottery can be destructive

There is the counter argument that you wouldn't want to get unearned things

I won't formally bet because I would have to see earnests first.

Any bet on the other side? The entire universe against what I have now? Sure. I can always start again if I lose.

That is the odds of winning but what is the stake against my "all"?

90% chance of what percentage of “everything” to gain?

Comment hidden

@RKCarn you have a 90% chance to win a bet, and 10% to lose everything, you doing it or not?

@WeezyzGhost what is the bet lol, that’s a maybe, just depends what I get out of it

@RKCarn tbh can be any bet, but you have the risk of losing everything. Just a general question...

@WeezyzGhost how do you resolve the question?

@WeezyzGhost but is it someone else losing everything to me, or what kind of winnings do I get?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen you are losing everything but you're winning a HUGE reward, picture it anything you want, use your imagination for it. Just a rational question

@WeezyzGhost how will you resolve the market?

@WeezyzGhost I think the point is that whether someone will risk 10% chance of loss depends on the magnitude of the gain. There's a calculation called "Expected Value" you can do for this: https://www.statology.org/expected-value-real-life-examples/

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy