FIDE Candidates Tournament - Round 3 prop bets

Basic

Ṁ28k

resolved Apr 6

Resolved

YES

At least one of the players who got an early lead loses a game (Caruana, Vidit, Gukesh, Nepo)

Resolved

YES

At least one of the players who are trailing wins a game (Hikaru, Firouzja, Pragg, Abasov)

Resolved

Only one player will have the lowest score after matches are over

Resolved

Someone will be in sole lead after all matches are over

Resolved

Someone takes a 40 minute think for 1 move

Resolved

All games reach at least 35 moves

Resolved

Someone does not castle before move 20

Resolved

White wins more games than black

Resolved

Exchange sack (someone trades a rook for a minor piece)

Resolved

A rating underdog wins a game

Resolved

YES

Someone has less than 30 seconds per move until move 40

Resolved

3 or more decisive games

Resolved

YES

3 or more draws

Resolved

YES

Nijat Abasov avoids losing

Resolved

A game lasts more than 60 moves

Resolved

Two players resign before move 40

Resolved

Someone plays a blunder according to a Lichess game analysis

Resolved

Someone has 1 hour lead on the clock before move 40

Resolved

Some opening move other than d4 or e4 is played

Resolved

Someone has less than 10 minutes for 15+ moves until move 40.

Options are for Open section unless specified otherwise.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Round 4: https://manifold.markets/Weezing/fide-candidates-tournament-round-4

This is also a NO.

bought Ṁ5 YES

@Sindre I don't think this happened

@Weezing I agree, can resolve NO. Vidit came closest, but he had more than 12 minutes when he played move 25, so no dice.

Pragg castled as the last player on move 19. What a nailbiter.

bought Ṁ600 YES

Vidit again, <23 for 23 moves.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Sindre Is it? At move 18 he needs 22, and he had 22:30 on the clock. Move before he had 32:03

@Weezing hm he played move 19 exactly at 22:00, so off by 1 sec :D But it will happen on the next move.

bought Ṁ450 NO

@Weezing before castling, he needed to make 23 moves to make the time control, and he made the move at 22:30.

@Sindre yea true

bought Ṁ800 YES

Vidit had <40.5 for 27 moves.

bought Ṁ5 YES

Great question! The Pragg/Svidler prep seems to be piping hot!

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Sindre Yea, but I kinda have feeling it might backfire again. Playing these sharp engine lines is very high risk strategy.

@Weezing True. Makes for good content though.

To be clear, a novelty ON the 10th move does not count?

@ADings yes, it must be before move 10

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