Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on any trading day from the market's creation date through April 2, 2027, the Nasdaq Composite Index (ticker: ^IXIC) closes at a price that is 15% or more below its highest closing price achieved up to that date (the running all-time high).

If the Nasdaq Composite does not experience a daily closing drawdown of 15% or more from its running all-time high at any point during this period, the market will resolve to NO.

• Source of Truth: Daily historical closing data from Yahoo Finance ^IXIC or another major financial data provider such as Google Finance.

• Running All-Time High Definition: The highest daily closing price achieved by the Nasdaq Composite in its history up to the trading day in question. As of August 2026, the record closing high is 27,093.90 (set on June 2, 2026), meaning a daily close at or below 23,029.81 would trigger a YES. If a new all-time closing high is established during the market's duration, the 15% threshold will adjust upward accordingly.

• Closing Price Only: This market relies strictly on daily closing prices. Intraday price movements will not be considered.

Background

The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of more than 3,000 common equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, heavily weighted toward technology and growth sectors.

In mid-2026, an unrelenting rally driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure development and strong corporate earnings pushed the Nasdaq Composite to a historic high, breaching the 27,000 mark for the first time. The index reached its record closing high of 27,093.90 on June 2, 2026. This market allows traders to predict whether macroeconomic factors, shifting interest rate expectations, or a broader tech sector correction will trigger a 15% drawdown from its peak before April 2, 2027.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.