Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on any regular trading day from August 4, 2026, through December 31, 2026 (inclusive), the official daily closing price of the Nasdaq Composite Index is at least 15.00% lower than its closing price on August 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

• Baseline Close ($C_{Aug3}$): The official closing price of the Nasdaq Composite on August 3, 2026.

• Target Price ($T$): $C_{Aug3} \times 0.85$ (rounded to two decimal places).

• Trigger: If the index's closing price on any subsequent trading day within the specified timeframe is less than or equal to $T$.

The primary source of truth for the daily closing prices will be Yahoo Finance (Ticker: ^IXIC) and Google Finance (Ticker: .IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ). If there is any discrepancy, the historical closing data reported directly by Nasdaq's official website will prevail.

Background

As of August 2026, the Nasdaq Composite has entered its second market correction of the year, sliding approximately 3% in July after hitting record highs earlier in the summer. Investors are currently navigating heightened market volatility, driven by concerns over whether heavy corporate investments in artificial intelligence will translate into near-term profitability, rising 10-year Treasury yields, and geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Historically, August and the surrounding late-summer months represent periods of thinner trading volumes and increased susceptibility to downside corrections.

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