Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trades below 50,500.00 at any point during regular US stock market trading hours (9:30 AM ET to 4:00 PM ET) on any trading day from market creation through the close of trading on August 11, 2026.

If the DJIA does not drop below 50,500.00 during regular trading hours within this timeframe, this market resolves to NO.

The primary sources of truth for resolving this market will be Yahoo Finance and Google Finance. If any discrepancies arise, official index values published by S&P Dow Jones Indices will serve as the final arbiter.

Background

The DJIA crossed the historic 50,000 milestone for the first time in February 2026. The index has experienced notable volatility since then, correcting by roughly 10% in late March amid geopolitical tensions and inflation worries before recovering to reach new all-time highs above 53,000 in early July. This market focuses on whether upcoming market movements will trigger a pullback below the 50,500 mark before mid-August.

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