Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trades below 50,000.00 at any point (including intraday trading or at market close) during regular US market trading hours between July 9, 2026, and the market close on Friday, July 31, 2026 (since August 1, 2026, is a Saturday).

Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

The primary source of truth for this market will be the historical data and daily lows reported by Yahoo Finance (Ticker: ^DJI). Specifically, if the "Low" value for any trading day during this period is strictly less than 50,000.00, the market resolves to YES.

Background

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reached a historic milestone in early July 2026, crossing the 53,000 threshold for the first time. However, the index has faced downward pressure due to shifting macroeconomic indicators and escalating geopolitical tensions, including concerns over the status of a ceasefire with Iran. This market tracks whether these compounding factors will trigger a correction steep enough to push the 30-stock index back below the 50,000 mark before August 2026.

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