Resolution criteria

This market resolves to Yes if the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closes below 51,000.00 on any trading day from October 6, 2026, through October 14, 2026, inclusive. Otherwise, this market resolves to No.

"Closing below 51,000" means the official daily closing price of the index is strictly less than 51,000.00 (i.e., 50,999.99 or lower). Intraday dips below 51,000 that do not hold at the market close do not trigger a "Yes" resolution.

The primary source of truth will be the daily closing price of the index as published by S&P Dow Jones Indices and archived on Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Historical closing prices reported on Yahoo Finance (^DJI) will serve as a secondary reference.

Note: Only closing prices recorded on or after October 6, 2026, will be considered. Previous closing prices below 51,000 (such as those on September 30 and October 1, 2026) do not count toward resolving this market.

Background

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has experienced downward pressure heading into October 2026. Although the index set an all-time high of 54,349.12 in August 2026, rising 10-year Treasury yields and climbing energy costs contributed to a 4.3% decline in September. The index fell below the 51,000 threshold multiple times recently, closing at 50,906.05 on September 30 and 50,926.56 on October 1, before pulling back up to 51,267.90 by October 5. This market tracks whether the index will slip back under the 51,000 mark at close before the mid-October cutoff.

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