Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the male baby name "Samuel" ranks 18th or higher (i.e., a rank of 1 through 18, inclusive) on the official Social Security Administration (SSA) list of popular baby names published in 2027.

This market resolves to NO if the male baby name "Samuel" ranks 19th or lower on the list, or if it does not appear in the rankings.

Rules and Edge Cases:

• Source of Truth: The market will resolve based on the official dataset published on the SSA Popular Baby Names website.

• Spelling and Gender: Only the exact spelling "Samuel" for male births will be considered. Alternate spellings (e.g., Samual, Sam) or female births of the name will not be counted.

• Timing: The SSA typically releases the baby name data for a given calendar year in May of the following year. The list for the birth year 2026 is expected to be released in May 2027. The market will remain open or pending until this official release.

Background

The Social Security Administration (SSA) compiles its annual baby name rankings from Social Security card applications submitted at birth. In the official SSA data for 2025 births (released in May 2026), Samuel ranked as the 18th most popular name for boys in the United States, down one spot from its 17th-place rank for 2024 births. This market tracks whether the name can maintain or improve upon this top-18 position for the 2027 calendar year.

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