Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the National Weather Service (NWS) issues a new Beach Hazards Statement (VTEC phenomenon code BH, significance code S) that applies to the San Francisco Peninsula Coast zone (CAZ509) with an issuance/effective time between June 21, 2026, and June 26, 2026, inclusive (based on Pacific Daylight Time, PDT).
Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Definition of "New": A Beach Hazards Statement is considered "new" if it is issued under a new Event Tracking Number (ETN) with a VTEC action code of
/O.NEW(New) or/O.EXB(Expansion of Area). Ongoing statements that were already active prior to June 21, 2026, and are simply continued (/O.CON) or extended in time (/O.EXT) during the timeframe do not qualify unless a distinct new hazard event is initialized.Geographic Zone: The alert must explicitly apply to the San Francisco Peninsula Coast (NWS zone code
CAZ509).Source of Truth: Verification will be based on official NWS text products issued by the San Francisco Bay Area / Monterey office (KMTR). Traders can verify active and historical statements using:
The NWS San Francisco Bay Area KMTR portal.
The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) VTEC Browser, searching for office
KMTR, phenomenonBH, and significanceS.
Background
The National Weather Service issues Beach Hazards Statements to warn of hazardous coastal conditions, such as high rip current risks, long-period swells, and dangerous sneaker waves. The San Francisco Peninsula Coast (designated as zone CAZ509) is monitored by the NWS Bay Area forecast office in Monterey (KMTR). These alerts are common during periods of high astronomical tides (such as king tides) or long-period southerly and southwesterly swells that regularly impact the Pacific Coast beaches of San Mateo and San Francisco counties.
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1,000