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MANIFOLD
Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.)
5
Ṁ100Ṁ37
2028
62%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between July 25, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM (my local time), I travel to a location that is 500 or more miles away from my primary residence. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

  • Measurement: Distance is measured as a straight-line ("as the crow flies") distance from my primary residence to my furthest point of travel, calculated using Google Maps or an equivalent mapping tool.

  • Exclusions: Travel undertaken or completed on or before July 23, 2026, does not count toward this market.

Background

As of July 23, 2026, I am currently 496 miles away from home, which does not meet the 500-mile threshold and is excluded from the timeline. This market tracks whether any future journeys over the next year and a half will take me further than 500 miles from my home.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

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