Will I be ranked #200 or better on the Fan Favorite badge by September 28, 2026? (This my day #105 and I'm ranked #215.)

Question

Yesterday I was ranked #213 (I think?). As far as I know, this is the first time my ranking has gone down. I guess the competition is getting tougher as I get closer to the top 200.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 50% chance (0 traders, as of Sep 5, 2026).

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