Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the official maximum daily temperature at Furnace Creek, Death Valley reaches or exceeds 129.0°F on any day between the market's creation and September 28, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

The primary source of truth is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) daily summaries for station GHCND:USC00042319 (Death Valley, CA), or official climatological reports/statements published by the National Weather Service (NWS) Las Vegas.

Real-time observations from the DEVC1 weather station (accessible via the NWS Time Series Viewer) may be used for preliminary tracking. However, final resolution will be based on the official quality-controlled dataset from NCEI or final verification announcements from NWS Las Vegas. If the finalized NCEI data is delayed past October 31, 2026, the market will resolve using the best available NWS Las Vegas daily climatological reports.

Background

Death Valley's Furnace Creek is widely recognized as one of the hottest locations on Earth. While a historical reading of 134°F from July 10, 1913, is officially listed as the world record, its accuracy is heavily disputed by modern meteorologists due to regional inconsistencies and potential observer errors.

The highest modern, reliably verified temperatures recorded at Furnace Creek are 130.0°F (54.4°C), reached on August 16, 2020, and July 9, 2021. More recently, during Death Valley's hottest meteorological summer on record in 2024, the station reached a peak maximum temperature of 129.2°F on July 7, 2024.

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