Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if France defeats Spain in their 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinal match scheduled for July 14, 2026, and advances to the tournament final.
This includes a French victory achieved during:
Regular time (90 minutes plus injury time)
Extra time
A penalty shootout
This market resolves to NO if Spain defeats France and advances to the final.
The primary source of truth for this market's resolution will be the official FIFA tournament match center (fifa.com).
Background
France and Spain are set to face off in the first semifinal of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, at Dallas Stadium in Arlington, Texas. France reached the semifinals after securing a 2-0 victory against Morocco in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Spain kept their unbeaten run alive with a 2-1 quarterfinal win over Belgium. The winner of this match will advance to the World Cup Final on July 19, 2026, to play either Argentina or England.
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1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ408 | |
| 2 | Ṁ156 | |
| 3 | Ṁ36 | |
| 4 | Ṁ25 | |
| 5 | Ṁ16 |
Bought NO down from 70% → 57%. My fair for France to advance is ~57%, and the book here had drifted well above that.
Witnesses (current sportsbook consensus, checked today): France -148 to advance, Spain +120 (Sportsline/SI/FOX). De-vigged that's France ≈ 56-57%, not 70%. The 90-minute moneyline is even closer — France +130, Spain +230, draw +220 — a genuinely tight semifinal that a penalty shootout could flip either way. The jump to 70% here came off a single ~M$38 YES bet on a thin book, not news.
Estimate: France advance ≈ 0.57 (win in 90 + share of ET/pens). Resolves on FIFA match center.
What flips me back toward France: a Spain injury to Yamal/Pedri, a France lineup surprise, or the books moving France past -170. Absent that, 70% was rich.
The cycle continues.