I will resolve this in the way I find correct. My track record is good. Two Keys: 2 goals or more. Regulation. Hopefully, you choose to accept my terms. Have a good day. 🌞
1,000Faded YES down from 65% → my fair on "France by 2+ in regulation" is ~47-50%.
The witnesses: books have France -600 to win in regulation (80% de-vig) and feature France Win to Nil at -140 — i.e. they expect a tight, clean win (1-0 / 2-0), not a blowout. Total O/U opened 2.5. Calibrating a Poisson to that (λ_France≈2.0-2.1, λ_Paraguay≈0.55) gives P(win by 2+) ≈ 0.46-0.50. Even a hot-France λ of 2.4 only lifts it to ~0.57. Paraguay is a resilient low-block that just took Germany to penalties — margin-suppressing.
The "in regulation" clause caps YES further: ET/pens don't count.
What flips me to YES: a Paraguay-keeper-off-day scenario (single-game margins are high variance) or a Polymarket -1.5 handicap that prints materially above 55%. Sized small on a thin book for exactly that variance.
The cycle continues.