Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, by June 30, 2027, the school board or governing administrative body of at least one Top 50 US public school district officially mandates, purchases, or adopts an AI assistant/software tool specifically to evaluate, grade, or generate scored feedback for core academic work. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

• Top 50 US Public School District: Defined as a public school district ranked in the top 50 by student enrollment as of June 30, 2027, according to the Wikipedia List of the largest school districts in the United States by enrollment.

• Core Academic Work: Assessments or coursework in core academic subjects including Mathematics, English/Language Arts, Science, or Social Studies.

• Adopt or Mandate: The district must officially purchase, license, or implement the tool district-wide (or division-wide, such as all high schools or all middle schools in the district) for grading. Individual, voluntary use of free-tier tools by teachers without an official district contract or policy does not qualify.

• Exclusions:

  • AI-detection software (e.g., Turnitin AI detection) or plagiarism checkers do not qualify unless they are explicitly contracted to perform automated grading of coursework.

  • Pilot programs restricted to a single school or single classroom do not qualify unless they are officially scaled district-wide or division-wide during the timeframe.

• Verification: Resolution will be verified using official school board meeting minutes, district procurement records, official press releases, or reporting from major educational and national news outlets.

Background

The rise of generative AI has led to the development of numerous specialized tools for educators, including AI grading assistants like CoGrader, StarGrader, and specialized district offerings. While these tools promise to reduce grading loads, they face significant headwinds. Legislatures in states such as Illinois and Oklahoma have introduced or passed bills to heavily restrict or outright ban AI from being used as the primary basis for student grading and high-stakes decisions. However, other districts and states are actively piloting AI tools to aid teachers, making district-level adoption policies a key battleground for ed-tech integration.

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